Bibliographic record
Abstract
I. GLOBAL ASSESSMENT AND OUTLOOKLike private bubbles, government bubbles are subject to correction. The twin-peaks of money and budget deficits, created in the last five years, were expected to adversely affect the global economy with one- to two-year lags, by destabilizing consumer spending and capital expenditures as well as reallocating holdings of assets. The reversal process for these herculean policies, also called exit strategy, has begun with fiscal consolidation from the United States to Europe, Asia, and Latin American. After the zero interest rate policies proved ineffective, they were followed by several quantitative easing rounds, aka printing money, which were partially used intentionally to correct banks' balance sheets and via financial investments in the stock market, without inducing private capital expenditures, the engine of growth and jobs.Four years into a fragile and weak global recovery, economic policies around the world have failed to stimulate private investment amid uncertainties, anti-business fiscal policies, and rigid labor markets. Economic growth at potential levels is still not around the corner.The weak global economic recovery is expected to continue over the short-run forecast horizon as changes in capital expenditures take six to eight quarters to fully be translated to incomes and jobs.During 2008-2012, worldwide growth in investment averaged 2.8%, compared with a long-term (1980-2007) average growth of 3.4%. More important, investment in the advanced economies in the last five years (2008-2012) declined by an average rate of 2.1%, about twice below the long-term (1980-2007) growth of 2.5%. During 2008-2012, in the emerging and developing economies investment jumped by an average of 6.9%, which is about 2% higher than the 4.8% long-term (1980-2007) average investment growth.In the rest of 2013 and in 2014, the strength of the global economic upswing will be strongly linked to business expenditures on capital goods. According to the findings of the latest Ifo survey of business executives, capital expenditures in the third quarter of this year were below satisfactory levels worldwide, and in each per capita defined income group, from high-income to middle-income and low-income countries. Characteristically, executives from both China and India assessed third quarter investment spending plans in their respected countries to be below those in the third quarter of 2012. Looking at the future, business executives from around the world anticipate an increase in capital expenditures over the next six months. In the first quarter of 2014, capital expenditures are expected to be higher than in the third quarter of 2013.II. SHORT-TERM INDICATORS AND FORECASTSThe baseline forecast incorporates major findings of the World Economic Survey, which was conducted in the third quarter of 2013 by the German Ifo Institute and the Parisbased International Chamber ofCommerce. About 1,200 executives from 125 countries have indicated that global economic activity stalled in the current quarter but they expect a recovery over the next six months. The major findings of the third quarter's survey are as follows:* Worldwide, executives evaluated the current economic situation, the third quarter of 2013, to be below satisfactory levels, led by unsatisfactory levels of capital expenditures. They found economic activity in their countries in the third quarter of 2013 to be the same or slightly below economic conditions in the third quarter of 2012. Most importantly, executives are optimistic regarding the future, expecting economic conditions in the first quarter of 2014 to be above those prevailing in the third quarter of 2013.* On a regional basis, North America executives assessed the current economic situation to be below satisfactory levels although better than a year ago. Looking forward, business experts from the United States and Canada expect economic conditions to get better in the next six months. …
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".