Notice bibliographique
Résumé
Editor's column A year ago, BP Chief Executive Officer Tony Hayward—amid an environment of a world steeped in recession and oil prices that had crashed more than USD 100/bbl—said that the future had not been canceled, only perhaps postponed a year or so. That prognosis appears to be coming true. Oil prices have rebounded to approximately USD 70/bbl, which appears to please producers as well as operators, and demand seems to be on the rise again. Recent economic data indicate the recession is easing and oil consumption returning, particularly in China and parts of Asia. Global demand is rising for the first time in a year, and Chinese demand grew by 6% in August, with industrial output surging. Those figures have taken the pressure off of OPEC to tighten supply, and it voted during its meeting last month to keep member production quotas unchanged. Saudi Oil Minister Ali Naimi said during the meeting that, at least for now, the price of oil would be driven by economic growth. In a report released last month, Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA) predicted that world oil demand would grow next year for the first time since 2007, and then return to prerecession levels by 2012. The recovery will be quicker than previous industry recoveries because of the strength of emerging markets and lack of adequate alternatives for hydrocarbons. IHS CERA expects oil demand growth to increase 900,000 BOPD in 2010 and return to its 2007 high of 86.5 million BOPD by 2012. That would be a much quicker recovery than from the major collapse that occurred in the 1980s. The futures market currently values oil closer to USD 90/bbl, although there is much industry convergence around a price closer to USD 70/bbl, Paul Horsnell, managing director and head of commodities research at Barclays Commercial, told an audience at the Offshore Europe conference last month. Not only does Saudi Arabia currently favor a USD 75/bbl oil price, but the costs of incremental production, the price that brings about alternative energy investment such as Canadian oil sands, and the break-even price on new investment that generates a 15% rate of return, are all approximately USD 65–75/bbl, he said. The past year may have been a time for the industry to catch its collective breath. This recent rise in demand is good news but a reminder of the daunting predictions that government agencies, analysts, and operators have made about the immediate to long-term future—sharply rising demand, more difficult to find oil, and shortages of technical talent. Recently announced discoveries—Occidental's California find, BP's Tiber in the Gulf of Mexico, and several big discoveries in Brazil—will only help, and are proof that E&P investment in times of both low and high oil prices pays off.
Récupéré en direct depuis OpenAlex et désinversé. Les résumés ne sont pas conservés dans cette base de données : les index inversés représentent 8,6 Go des 9,3 Go de texte de la base, et le serveur dispose de 13 Go libres.
Comment cette classification a été obtenuedéplier
Prédiction distillée sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Apprise à partir de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Gemma. Le mode candidate est l'union des têtes enseignantes seuillées; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont ni des étiquettes humaines ni des étiquettes directes de modèles de pointe.
Scores Codex et Gemma par catégorie
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Communication savante | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Science ouverte | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,000 | 0,001 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule tête enseignante, pas un consensus.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».