Bibliographic record
Abstract
Editor's column A year ago, BP Chief Executive Officer Tony Hayward—amid an environment of a world steeped in recession and oil prices that had crashed more than USD 100/bbl—said that the future had not been canceled, only perhaps postponed a year or so. That prognosis appears to be coming true. Oil prices have rebounded to approximately USD 70/bbl, which appears to please producers as well as operators, and demand seems to be on the rise again. Recent economic data indicate the recession is easing and oil consumption returning, particularly in China and parts of Asia. Global demand is rising for the first time in a year, and Chinese demand grew by 6% in August, with industrial output surging. Those figures have taken the pressure off of OPEC to tighten supply, and it voted during its meeting last month to keep member production quotas unchanged. Saudi Oil Minister Ali Naimi said during the meeting that, at least for now, the price of oil would be driven by economic growth. In a report released last month, Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA) predicted that world oil demand would grow next year for the first time since 2007, and then return to prerecession levels by 2012. The recovery will be quicker than previous industry recoveries because of the strength of emerging markets and lack of adequate alternatives for hydrocarbons. IHS CERA expects oil demand growth to increase 900,000 BOPD in 2010 and return to its 2007 high of 86.5 million BOPD by 2012. That would be a much quicker recovery than from the major collapse that occurred in the 1980s. The futures market currently values oil closer to USD 90/bbl, although there is much industry convergence around a price closer to USD 70/bbl, Paul Horsnell, managing director and head of commodities research at Barclays Commercial, told an audience at the Offshore Europe conference last month. Not only does Saudi Arabia currently favor a USD 75/bbl oil price, but the costs of incremental production, the price that brings about alternative energy investment such as Canadian oil sands, and the break-even price on new investment that generates a 15% rate of return, are all approximately USD 65–75/bbl, he said. The past year may have been a time for the industry to catch its collective breath. This recent rise in demand is good news but a reminder of the daunting predictions that government agencies, analysts, and operators have made about the immediate to long-term future—sharply rising demand, more difficult to find oil, and shortages of technical talent. Recently announced discoveries—Occidental's California find, BP's Tiber in the Gulf of Mexico, and several big discoveries in Brazil—will only help, and are proof that E&P investment in times of both low and high oil prices pays off.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.006 | 0.051 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.005 | 0.003 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.010 | 0.009 |
| Open science | 0.003 | 0.004 |
| Research integrity | 0.021 | 0.025 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.134 | 0.070 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".