Notice bibliographique
Résumé
Management It seems only the proverbial blink of an eye since the principal determinants of the price of crude oil on world markets were the tax-paid cost of the Burgan field in Kuwait and the producing allocations decided by the Texas Railroad Commission. Crude oil was in such abundant supply 50 years ago that British Petroleum, then half-owner of the Kuwait concession, and the world's largest oil producer by far, sold more than half a million BOPD of its share of production to its partner, Gulf Oil, at the overlift price, one-eighth way between the accounting cost of production (then about USD 0.80/bbl) and the posted price of USD 1.75. Gulf Oil turned around and resold most of its Kuwait overlift oil at a larger profit, and nobody seemed to care. The world was awash in oil. On the domestic front, supply was so abundant that Texas oil wells were permitted to pump for only 97 days in 1958. Suffice it to say that we no longer exist in a world of oversupply. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures on Nymex briefly crossed the USD 100/bbl threshold in late 2007. Alberta has become the new Kuwait, and the Texas Railroad Commission figuratively relocated from Austin to Vienna and became OPEC. Like the Seven Sisters before them, OPEC has attempted to control the price of oil on world markets, with Saudi Arabia shouldering the role of market regulator. While the majors showed impressive solidarity in their dealings with foreign governments, the supply fundamentals were not in their favor. The nationalization of IPC's holdings in Iraq, for example, was precipitated by the refusal of the majors to develop new Iraqi oil fields when there was already too much oil on the market. So what has happened to trigger the more than seventy-fold increase in the price of oil since the 1960s, when the arm's-length price of Kuwait crude was around USD 1.35/bbl, and what lessons may we glean from this history as we peer intently into the crystal ball of price predictions? The Lessons of History As Winston Churchill famously remarked, "Those that fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it." Three principal forces have been at play over the past 50 years, and we would be remiss in ignoring them.Population and economic growth, which powered world consumption of refined products to grow from 21.3 to 84.4 million BOPD between 1960 and 2006.Cumulative oil production since 1960, which, notwithstanding published recoverable-reserves estimates to the contrary, exceeded reserves additions.The remarkable adaptability of consumers to higher prices, abetted by frequently undisciplined or short-sighted government policies that encourage inefficient use of transportation fuels.
Récupéré en direct depuis OpenAlex et désinversé. Les résumés ne sont pas conservés dans cette base de données : les index inversés représentent 8,6 Go des 9,3 Go de texte de la base, et le serveur dispose de 13 Go libres.
Comment cette classification a été obtenuedéplier
Prédiction machine sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Le volet Gemma est une étiquette directe du modèle pour chaque travail de la base, lue sur la notice réduite au titre. Le volet Codex est un classifieur appris des 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et calibré sur les taux pondérés de l'échantillon; les champs sans appui suffisant ne portent aucun appel Codex. Le mode candidate est l'union des deux volets; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont pas des étiquettes humaines.
Scores du classifieur distillé par catégorie (deux têtes)
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,001 | 0,004 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,001 | 0,003 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,002 | 0,002 |
| Communication savante | 0,004 | 0,005 |
| Science ouverte | 0,001 | 0,002 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,002 | 0,003 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,024 | 0,006 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule source (Gemma direct ou Codex distillé), pas un consensus.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».