Bibliographic record
Abstract
Management It seems only the proverbial blink of an eye since the principal determinants of the price of crude oil on world markets were the tax-paid cost of the Burgan field in Kuwait and the producing allocations decided by the Texas Railroad Commission. Crude oil was in such abundant supply 50 years ago that British Petroleum, then half-owner of the Kuwait concession, and the world's largest oil producer by far, sold more than half a million BOPD of its share of production to its partner, Gulf Oil, at the overlift price, one-eighth way between the accounting cost of production (then about USD 0.80/bbl) and the posted price of USD 1.75. Gulf Oil turned around and resold most of its Kuwait overlift oil at a larger profit, and nobody seemed to care. The world was awash in oil. On the domestic front, supply was so abundant that Texas oil wells were permitted to pump for only 97 days in 1958. Suffice it to say that we no longer exist in a world of oversupply. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures on Nymex briefly crossed the USD 100/bbl threshold in late 2007. Alberta has become the new Kuwait, and the Texas Railroad Commission figuratively relocated from Austin to Vienna and became OPEC. Like the Seven Sisters before them, OPEC has attempted to control the price of oil on world markets, with Saudi Arabia shouldering the role of market regulator. While the majors showed impressive solidarity in their dealings with foreign governments, the supply fundamentals were not in their favor. The nationalization of IPC's holdings in Iraq, for example, was precipitated by the refusal of the majors to develop new Iraqi oil fields when there was already too much oil on the market. So what has happened to trigger the more than seventy-fold increase in the price of oil since the 1960s, when the arm's-length price of Kuwait crude was around USD 1.35/bbl, and what lessons may we glean from this history as we peer intently into the crystal ball of price predictions? The Lessons of History As Winston Churchill famously remarked, "Those that fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it." Three principal forces have been at play over the past 50 years, and we would be remiss in ignoring them.Population and economic growth, which powered world consumption of refined products to grow from 21.3 to 84.4 million BOPD between 1960 and 2006.Cumulative oil production since 1960, which, notwithstanding published recoverable-reserves estimates to the contrary, exceeded reserves additions.The remarkable adaptability of consumers to higher prices, abetted by frequently undisciplined or short-sighted government policies that encourage inefficient use of transportation fuels.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".