The Role of Energy in Sustainable Development: The Mexican Case
Notice bibliographique
Résumé
Abstract Is having natural gas and oil (GO), a blessing or a curse? Mexico plays an important role as trading partner in energy with US and Canada. Mexico's energy potential is underutilized. Its recent stagnation is attributable not to resource scarcity, but to insufficient government investment in new drilling activity. The purpose of this paper is to build an econometric model that links GO drilling with reserves and production. Simulations are performed. GO are critical to the achievement of sustainable development. Policy errors explain the failure to provide investment in capacity required to meet GO world's growing demand. Mexico must either develop its GO domestic sources or increase imports. The Mexican Case serves as a useful counter to two recent theories that minimize such potential. The theory by Colin Campbell states that global GO supplies are near or past their peak, owed to the cumulative effects of resource exhaustion. The second, developed by Jeffrey Sachs ("The Resource Curse"), considers that GO offer no potential for useful contribution to sustainable development, but impede it by reducing the economic welfare of the host countries. This paper aims in influencing World Bank's decisions now under consideration for future funding of GO production after 2008. Introduction Mexico's resource potential is expected to be challenging. The recent stagnation of the sector is found to be attributable not to resource scarcity, but to insufficient government investment in new drilling activity. Achieving sustained growth in this environment will require significant cuts in government spending on other programs. The Mexican Oil and Gas Supply Model enhances our understanding of the Influence of Energy in Sustainable Development. The model is relatively simple, theoretically well founded, and characterized by stable and robust parameters in line with comparable parameters estimated for other countries in the literature. This model provides the basis for the conclusions that it was lack of drilling effort, not resource scarcity, responsible for past reserve declines. This model also provides the basis for optimism for recovery based on recently expanded drilling budgets. The simulations performed reveal the potential for a recovery of supply based on a long term cut in PEMEX's Tax Burden, and the increase in private investment. PEMEX (Petroleos Mexicanos) is a company owned by the State. The purpose of this research is to develop and estimate a detailed and integrated econometric oil and gas supply model for Mexico.(1) Moroney's model provides a description of three vertically integrated sectors: drilling, reserve additions, and production. "Modeling these three sectors individually is essential to understand oil and gas supply, because ultimately, an increase in price can only lead to additional production through a process that begins with additional exploration and discovery, continues with an expansion of reserves, and finally results in additional production". (2) The model built in this research looked out for the adequate financial variables that influence the Mexican oil and gas model.
Récupéré en direct depuis OpenAlex et désinversé. Les résumés ne sont pas conservés dans cette base de données : les index inversés représentent 8,6 Go des 9,3 Go de texte de la base, et le serveur dispose de 13 Go libres.
Comment cette classification a été obtenuedéplier
Prédiction machine sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Le volet Gemma est une étiquette directe du modèle pour chaque travail de la base, lue sur la notice réduite au titre. Le volet Codex est un classifieur appris des 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et calibré sur les taux pondérés de l'échantillon; les champs sans appui suffisant ne portent aucun appel Codex. Le mode candidate est l'union des deux volets; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont pas des étiquettes humaines.
Scores du classifieur distillé par catégorie (deux têtes)
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,001 | 0,002 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,000 | 0,001 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,001 | 0,001 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,001 | 0,002 |
| Communication savante | 0,003 | 0,002 |
| Science ouverte | 0,001 | 0,001 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,001 | 0,001 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,005 | 0,000 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule source (Gemma direct ou Codex distillé), pas un consensus.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».