The Role of Energy in Sustainable Development: The Mexican Case
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Is having natural gas and oil (GO), a blessing or a curse? Mexico plays an important role as trading partner in energy with US and Canada. Mexico's energy potential is underutilized. Its recent stagnation is attributable not to resource scarcity, but to insufficient government investment in new drilling activity. The purpose of this paper is to build an econometric model that links GO drilling with reserves and production. Simulations are performed. GO are critical to the achievement of sustainable development. Policy errors explain the failure to provide investment in capacity required to meet GO world's growing demand. Mexico must either develop its GO domestic sources or increase imports. The Mexican Case serves as a useful counter to two recent theories that minimize such potential. The theory by Colin Campbell states that global GO supplies are near or past their peak, owed to the cumulative effects of resource exhaustion. The second, developed by Jeffrey Sachs ("The Resource Curse"), considers that GO offer no potential for useful contribution to sustainable development, but impede it by reducing the economic welfare of the host countries. This paper aims in influencing World Bank's decisions now under consideration for future funding of GO production after 2008. Introduction Mexico's resource potential is expected to be challenging. The recent stagnation of the sector is found to be attributable not to resource scarcity, but to insufficient government investment in new drilling activity. Achieving sustained growth in this environment will require significant cuts in government spending on other programs. The Mexican Oil and Gas Supply Model enhances our understanding of the Influence of Energy in Sustainable Development. The model is relatively simple, theoretically well founded, and characterized by stable and robust parameters in line with comparable parameters estimated for other countries in the literature. This model provides the basis for the conclusions that it was lack of drilling effort, not resource scarcity, responsible for past reserve declines. This model also provides the basis for optimism for recovery based on recently expanded drilling budgets. The simulations performed reveal the potential for a recovery of supply based on a long term cut in PEMEX's Tax Burden, and the increase in private investment. PEMEX (Petroleos Mexicanos) is a company owned by the State. The purpose of this research is to develop and estimate a detailed and integrated econometric oil and gas supply model for Mexico.(1) Moroney's model provides a description of three vertically integrated sectors: drilling, reserve additions, and production. "Modeling these three sectors individually is essential to understand oil and gas supply, because ultimately, an increase in price can only lead to additional production through a process that begins with additional exploration and discovery, continues with an expansion of reserves, and finally results in additional production". (2) The model built in this research looked out for the adequate financial variables that influence the Mexican oil and gas model.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".