Notice bibliographique
Résumé
Led by the Americas and Non-Euro Countries in EuropeI. GLOBAL ASSESSMENT AND OUTLOOKWe have revised down our Euro Area growth forecasts for 2013- from +0.5% to -0.6%- and raised our growth forecasts for the Americas and the non-euro countries in Europe. We assume that political change in the U.S. Congress and/or the presidency will resolve budget uncertainties and set fiscal discipline. We still maintain a slowdown in the growth of emerging Asian economies as a group for 2013, expecting an annual growth rate of 6.8% in China.Preliminary data on the second quarter shows that the combined output of the Euro Area declined by an annual rate of 0.8%, following two quarters of zero or negative growth rates. In the United Kingdom, real output contracted for the third consecutive quarter by an annual rate of 1.8% and in the United States, growth decelerated to an annual rate of 1.7% from 2.0% in the first quarter and 4.1% in the last quarter of 201 1.Global economic growth will begin to accelerate in the first quarter of 2013, led by slowly rising growth rates in North America, South America, and the non-euro countries in Europe. Worldwide inflation is forecast to stabilize at the current average rate of about 3.5% in 2013 and slightly decline to 3.3% in 2014 (see Table 1). The expected reemergence of the global recovery in 2013 will result in acceleration in the volume of international trade. We forecast world trade volume in goods and services will expand by an annual rate of 5.5% in 2013 and 6.8% in 2014, following an estimated growth rate of 3.8% in 201 2.II SHORT-TERM INDICATORS AND FORECASTSThe baseline forecast incorporates major findings of the World Economic Survey conducted by the German lfo Institute and the Paris-based International Chamber of Commerce, which was conducted in the third quarter of 2012. About 1,100 executives from 123 countries have indicated that the world's economic climate fell in the third quarter of 2012 driven by unfavorable assessments about the current economic situation. The major findings of the third quarter's survey are as follows:* Worldwide, executives evaluated the current economic situation, third quarter of 201 2, to be below satisfactory levels, led by low levels on capital expenditures. They found economic activity in their countries to be slightly better than in the third quarter of 201 1 . Most important, regarding the future, executives expect economic conditions in the first quarter of 201 3 to be above those prevailing in the third quarter of 2012.* On a regional basis, North American executives assessed the current economic situation to be below satisfactory levels and worse than a year ago. Looking forward, business experts from the United States and Canada expect economic conditions to get better in the next six months. In Asia, executives appraised the current economic situation to be below satisfactory levels and better than a year ago; they were optimistic about the future, expecting economic activity in the next six months to be higherthan in the third quarter of 2012. In Western Europe, executives' appraisals of current conditions were below satisfactory levels and slightly above economic levels that they experienced in the third quarter of 201 1; expectations of European business executives on future economic conditions signaled an economic recovery in the first quarter of 201 3.* With respect to prices, survey participants expect average worldwide inflation over the next two quarters to stay at current levels.* Looking at world trade, the business executives'combined expectations call for the volume of both exports and imports to be slightly higher in the next two quarters compared to present trade flows during the third quarter of 201 2.* Regarding financial markets, survey participants expect short-term rates over the next two quarters to stay around current levels and long-term interest rates to rise from current levels. …
Récupéré en direct depuis OpenAlex et désinversé. Les résumés ne sont pas conservés dans cette base de données : les index inversés représentent 8,6 Go des 9,3 Go de texte de la base, et le serveur dispose de 13 Go libres.
Comment cette classification a été obtenuedéplier
Prédiction distillée sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Apprise à partir de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Gemma. Le mode candidate est l'union des têtes enseignantes seuillées; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont ni des étiquettes humaines ni des étiquettes directes de modèles de pointe.
Scores Codex et Gemma par catégorie
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,000 | 0,001 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Communication savante | 0,000 | 0,001 |
| Science ouverte | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule tête enseignante, pas un consensus.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».