Bibliographic record
Abstract
Led by the Americas and Non-Euro Countries in EuropeI. GLOBAL ASSESSMENT AND OUTLOOKWe have revised down our Euro Area growth forecasts for 2013- from +0.5% to -0.6%- and raised our growth forecasts for the Americas and the non-euro countries in Europe. We assume that political change in the U.S. Congress and/or the presidency will resolve budget uncertainties and set fiscal discipline. We still maintain a slowdown in the growth of emerging Asian economies as a group for 2013, expecting an annual growth rate of 6.8% in China.Preliminary data on the second quarter shows that the combined output of the Euro Area declined by an annual rate of 0.8%, following two quarters of zero or negative growth rates. In the United Kingdom, real output contracted for the third consecutive quarter by an annual rate of 1.8% and in the United States, growth decelerated to an annual rate of 1.7% from 2.0% in the first quarter and 4.1% in the last quarter of 201 1.Global economic growth will begin to accelerate in the first quarter of 2013, led by slowly rising growth rates in North America, South America, and the non-euro countries in Europe. Worldwide inflation is forecast to stabilize at the current average rate of about 3.5% in 2013 and slightly decline to 3.3% in 2014 (see Table 1). The expected reemergence of the global recovery in 2013 will result in acceleration in the volume of international trade. We forecast world trade volume in goods and services will expand by an annual rate of 5.5% in 2013 and 6.8% in 2014, following an estimated growth rate of 3.8% in 201 2.II SHORT-TERM INDICATORS AND FORECASTSThe baseline forecast incorporates major findings of the World Economic Survey conducted by the German lfo Institute and the Paris-based International Chamber of Commerce, which was conducted in the third quarter of 2012. About 1,100 executives from 123 countries have indicated that the world's economic climate fell in the third quarter of 2012 driven by unfavorable assessments about the current economic situation. The major findings of the third quarter's survey are as follows:* Worldwide, executives evaluated the current economic situation, third quarter of 201 2, to be below satisfactory levels, led by low levels on capital expenditures. They found economic activity in their countries to be slightly better than in the third quarter of 201 1 . Most important, regarding the future, executives expect economic conditions in the first quarter of 201 3 to be above those prevailing in the third quarter of 2012.* On a regional basis, North American executives assessed the current economic situation to be below satisfactory levels and worse than a year ago. Looking forward, business experts from the United States and Canada expect economic conditions to get better in the next six months. In Asia, executives appraised the current economic situation to be below satisfactory levels and better than a year ago; they were optimistic about the future, expecting economic activity in the next six months to be higherthan in the third quarter of 2012. In Western Europe, executives' appraisals of current conditions were below satisfactory levels and slightly above economic levels that they experienced in the third quarter of 201 1; expectations of European business executives on future economic conditions signaled an economic recovery in the first quarter of 201 3.* With respect to prices, survey participants expect average worldwide inflation over the next two quarters to stay at current levels.* Looking at world trade, the business executives'combined expectations call for the volume of both exports and imports to be slightly higher in the next two quarters compared to present trade flows during the third quarter of 201 2.* Regarding financial markets, survey participants expect short-term rates over the next two quarters to stay around current levels and long-term interest rates to rise from current levels. …
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".