The Consensus Economic Outlook Spring 2012 . . . A Hoped-For Sense of Renewal
Notice bibliographique
Résumé
The information in this forecast is gathered by The Journal from sources it considers reliable. Neither The Journal nor the individual institutions providing the data guarantee accuracy; nor do any of them warrant in any way that use of the data appearing herein will enhance the business or investment performance of companies or individuals who use them. Jack Malehorn is a professor at Georgia Military College (Milledgeville, Georgia). He is on the Editorial Review Board to the Journal of Business Forecasting. He has worked as President and CEO of The Black Hill Manufacturing Co., and COO of NorCom Advanced Technologies. He has also worked as Chief Economist for United Telephone Company of Pennsylvania and New Jersey, which is an operating company of Sprint. He has taught as an Adjunct Professor at Johns-Hopkins University, Graduate School of Business. For any comments and suggestions, contact him by email at Jmalehorn@yahoo.com.PARTICIPANTS | Conf Board = Conference Board, New York, New York; Global Insight = Global Insight, Eddystone, Pennsylvania; GSU - EFC - Georgia State University, Economic Forecasting Center, Atlanta, Georgia; Moody's Economy - Moody's Economy.com, Westchester, Pennsylvania; Mortgage = Mortgage Bankers Association, Washington, DC; NAM = National Association of Manufacturers, Washington, D.C.; Northern Tr = Northern Trust Company, Chicago, Illinois; Perryman Gp = The Perryman Group, Waco, Texas; Royal Bank of Canada, Canada; SP U.S. Bank = Minneapolis, MN; US Chamber = U.S. Chamber of Commerce, Washington, DC; Wells Fargo = Wells Fargo Bank, San Francisco, California.With the shackles of winter quickly retreating and spring's abundant hope for the return of mild temperatures and outside activities, a HopedFor Sense of Renewal has filtered into the Outlook. A cursory review of the projections suggests a slow but positive march forward as the year unfolds. Still, even the most ardent optimist will admit there exists many possible bumps in the road. The state of technology has shortened the time and distance in today's global economy. As such, events as far removed as Iran's belligerent stance regarding their nuclear capabilities, the European debt crisis, and even the price per gallon of gas - to mention just a few - assault us every day. So much of what awaits us in the unknown is beyond easily quantifiable yet rests in the hearts and pocketbooks of people worldwide. It seems as if everyone is anxious to throw off the yoke of a poor economy for something better. Indeed, it is still too early to tell whether or not that will really transpire.THE U.S. ECONOMY... AN OVERVIEWThe Consensus Outlook is notably more positive across the members. The Consensus predicts positive economic growth across three major indicators including real GDP, Personal Income, and Personal Consumption Expenditures at 1.9%, 2.0%, and 2.9%, respectively. Still, labor markets appear difficult to revive with only a slight improvement in unemployment from 8.4% to 8.2% during the forecast period. A very positive note presents itself regarding inflation or the absence of it. Both indicators of inflation are predicted to remain quite subdued at or only slightly above 1%.Dr. Rajeev Dhawan, Director of the Economic Forecasting Center at Georgia State University's J. …
Récupéré en direct depuis OpenAlex et désinversé. Les résumés ne sont pas conservés dans cette base de données : les index inversés représentent 8,6 Go des 9,3 Go de texte de la base, et le serveur dispose de 13 Go libres.
Comment cette classification a été obtenuedéplier
Prédiction distillée sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Apprise à partir de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Gemma. Le mode candidate est l'union des têtes enseignantes seuillées; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont ni des étiquettes humaines ni des étiquettes directes de modèles de pointe.
Scores Codex et Gemma par catégorie
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,004 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Communication savante | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Science ouverte | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule tête enseignante, pas un consensus.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».