The Consensus Economic Outlook Spring 2012 . . . A Hoped-For Sense of Renewal
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The information in this forecast is gathered by The Journal from sources it considers reliable. Neither The Journal nor the individual institutions providing the data guarantee accuracy; nor do any of them warrant in any way that use of the data appearing herein will enhance the business or investment performance of companies or individuals who use them. Jack Malehorn is a professor at Georgia Military College (Milledgeville, Georgia). He is on the Editorial Review Board to the Journal of Business Forecasting. He has worked as President and CEO of The Black Hill Manufacturing Co., and COO of NorCom Advanced Technologies. He has also worked as Chief Economist for United Telephone Company of Pennsylvania and New Jersey, which is an operating company of Sprint. He has taught as an Adjunct Professor at Johns-Hopkins University, Graduate School of Business. For any comments and suggestions, contact him by email at Jmalehorn@yahoo.com.PARTICIPANTS | Conf Board = Conference Board, New York, New York; Global Insight = Global Insight, Eddystone, Pennsylvania; GSU - EFC - Georgia State University, Economic Forecasting Center, Atlanta, Georgia; Moody's Economy - Moody's Economy.com, Westchester, Pennsylvania; Mortgage = Mortgage Bankers Association, Washington, DC; NAM = National Association of Manufacturers, Washington, D.C.; Northern Tr = Northern Trust Company, Chicago, Illinois; Perryman Gp = The Perryman Group, Waco, Texas; Royal Bank of Canada, Canada; SP U.S. Bank = Minneapolis, MN; US Chamber = U.S. Chamber of Commerce, Washington, DC; Wells Fargo = Wells Fargo Bank, San Francisco, California.With the shackles of winter quickly retreating and spring's abundant hope for the return of mild temperatures and outside activities, a HopedFor Sense of Renewal has filtered into the Outlook. A cursory review of the projections suggests a slow but positive march forward as the year unfolds. Still, even the most ardent optimist will admit there exists many possible bumps in the road. The state of technology has shortened the time and distance in today's global economy. As such, events as far removed as Iran's belligerent stance regarding their nuclear capabilities, the European debt crisis, and even the price per gallon of gas - to mention just a few - assault us every day. So much of what awaits us in the unknown is beyond easily quantifiable yet rests in the hearts and pocketbooks of people worldwide. It seems as if everyone is anxious to throw off the yoke of a poor economy for something better. Indeed, it is still too early to tell whether or not that will really transpire.THE U.S. ECONOMY... AN OVERVIEWThe Consensus Outlook is notably more positive across the members. The Consensus predicts positive economic growth across three major indicators including real GDP, Personal Income, and Personal Consumption Expenditures at 1.9%, 2.0%, and 2.9%, respectively. Still, labor markets appear difficult to revive with only a slight improvement in unemployment from 8.4% to 8.2% during the forecast period. A very positive note presents itself regarding inflation or the absence of it. Both indicators of inflation are predicted to remain quite subdued at or only slightly above 1%.Dr. Rajeev Dhawan, Director of the Economic Forecasting Center at Georgia State University's J. …
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.004 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".