The Visible Minority, Immigrant, and Bilingual Composition of Ridings and Party Support in the Canadian Federal Election of 2004 (1)
Notice bibliographique
Résumé
ABSTRACT/RESUME Analysis of results among Canada's 308 electoral districts reveals that for the federal election of 2004, the visible minority, immigrant, and bilingual composition of ridings substantial effects on of support for the Liberal, Conservative, and New Democratic Parties, as well as for the Bloc Quebecois. Regression analyses at national and regional reveal that riding characteristics--percent immigrant, percent visible minority, and percent bilingual--have impacts on party support that persist when social class composition, measured by average family income and percent with university degrees, is taken into account. The implications of these findings for the 2006 federal election are also discussed. L'analyse des resultats des elections federales 2004, selectionnes parmi les 308 circonscriptions electorales canadiennes, demontre que la composition ethnique et immigrante des circonscriptions ont eu un effet significatif sur le soutien offert aux libtraux, aux conservateurs, aux nouveaux democrates et au Bloc Quebecois. Selon l'analyse de rtgression aux niveaux national et regional, les caracteristiques des circonscriptions, soit le pourcentage de la population bilingue, des immigrants et des minoritts visibles, influencent le soutien offert aux partis, effet qui persiste lorsque la composition des classes sociales, determinees par le revenu median par famille et le pourcentage d'universitaires, entre en ligne de compte. INTRODUCTION In the aftermath of the 1995 referendum on sovereignty, which the yes side lost by razor-thin margin (49.4% to 50.6%), Quebec Premier Jacques Parizeau blamed the loss on wealth and the minority vote. He implied that these alien elements were thwarting the wishes of the real Quebecois (the pur laine), majority of whom said yes to sovereignty. Blaming the loss on and the ethnic vote--at time when the Parti Quebecois was attempting to be more inclusive--lead, in short order, to the resignation of the premier. Parizeau's fate notwithstanding, the effects of money and the ethnic vote on party support are the subject of this paper. Over the past twenty years since their iron grip on Quebec was broken by Mulroney's Conservatives (1984) and the Bloc Quebecois (1993), the have become increasingly dependent for their electoral success on Ontario in general and the multicultural ridings of Canada's major metropolitan areas in particular. This pattern has long been recognized by newspaper columnists and academics alike: Liberals depend on multicultural votes (Simpson 2005); in her Hamilton riding, Sheila Copps had strong ties to the large immigrant community, which traditionally supported the Liberal (Campbell and Christian 1999, 103); recent immigrants tend to support the (Pelletier 1991, 145). Such scattered observations notwithstanding, Stasiulis points to a dearth of research in Canada focused specifically on the electoral experiences of immigrants and ethnocultural minorities in electoral politics and the political process at various levels (cited in Siemiatycki and Saloojee 2002, 242). Those conducting research in the area deal mainly with the extent to which ethnocultural and visible minority communities field candidates and win elections at federal, provincial, or municipal or, more concisely, access to the political process through minority representation (Pelletier 1991; Simard 1991; Stasiulis and Abu-Laban 1991). Of course, electoral success by minority candidates requires the mobilization of supportive ethnocultural vote and substantial voter turnout. Discussion of electoral success by minority candidates rarely makes the Liberal/minority link, since they are selected and elected in all of the major political parties (Dhillon 2005; Siemiatycki and Matheson 2005). Bird (2005, 82) notes that the won in each of the nineteen most diverse ridings of the Greater Toronto Area in 2004--despite the fact that they ran only four minority candidates there, while the Conservatives and the New Democratic Party (NDP) each ran six. …
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Prédiction distillée sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Apprise à partir de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Gemma. Le mode candidate est l'union des têtes enseignantes seuillées; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont ni des étiquettes humaines ni des étiquettes directes de modèles de pointe.
Scores Codex et Gemma par catégorie
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,001 | 0,001 |
| Communication savante | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Science ouverte | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule tête enseignante, pas un consensus.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».