The Visible Minority, Immigrant, and Bilingual Composition of Ridings and Party Support in the Canadian Federal Election of 2004 (1)
Bibliographic record
Abstract
ABSTRACT/RESUME Analysis of results among Canada's 308 electoral districts reveals that for the federal election of 2004, the visible minority, immigrant, and bilingual composition of ridings substantial effects on of support for the Liberal, Conservative, and New Democratic Parties, as well as for the Bloc Quebecois. Regression analyses at national and regional reveal that riding characteristics--percent immigrant, percent visible minority, and percent bilingual--have impacts on party support that persist when social class composition, measured by average family income and percent with university degrees, is taken into account. The implications of these findings for the 2006 federal election are also discussed. L'analyse des resultats des elections federales 2004, selectionnes parmi les 308 circonscriptions electorales canadiennes, demontre que la composition ethnique et immigrante des circonscriptions ont eu un effet significatif sur le soutien offert aux libtraux, aux conservateurs, aux nouveaux democrates et au Bloc Quebecois. Selon l'analyse de rtgression aux niveaux national et regional, les caracteristiques des circonscriptions, soit le pourcentage de la population bilingue, des immigrants et des minoritts visibles, influencent le soutien offert aux partis, effet qui persiste lorsque la composition des classes sociales, determinees par le revenu median par famille et le pourcentage d'universitaires, entre en ligne de compte. INTRODUCTION In the aftermath of the 1995 referendum on sovereignty, which the yes side lost by razor-thin margin (49.4% to 50.6%), Quebec Premier Jacques Parizeau blamed the loss on wealth and the minority vote. He implied that these alien elements were thwarting the wishes of the real Quebecois (the pur laine), majority of whom said yes to sovereignty. Blaming the loss on and the ethnic vote--at time when the Parti Quebecois was attempting to be more inclusive--lead, in short order, to the resignation of the premier. Parizeau's fate notwithstanding, the effects of money and the ethnic vote on party support are the subject of this paper. Over the past twenty years since their iron grip on Quebec was broken by Mulroney's Conservatives (1984) and the Bloc Quebecois (1993), the have become increasingly dependent for their electoral success on Ontario in general and the multicultural ridings of Canada's major metropolitan areas in particular. This pattern has long been recognized by newspaper columnists and academics alike: Liberals depend on multicultural votes (Simpson 2005); in her Hamilton riding, Sheila Copps had strong ties to the large immigrant community, which traditionally supported the Liberal (Campbell and Christian 1999, 103); recent immigrants tend to support the (Pelletier 1991, 145). Such scattered observations notwithstanding, Stasiulis points to a dearth of research in Canada focused specifically on the electoral experiences of immigrants and ethnocultural minorities in electoral politics and the political process at various levels (cited in Siemiatycki and Saloojee 2002, 242). Those conducting research in the area deal mainly with the extent to which ethnocultural and visible minority communities field candidates and win elections at federal, provincial, or municipal or, more concisely, access to the political process through minority representation (Pelletier 1991; Simard 1991; Stasiulis and Abu-Laban 1991). Of course, electoral success by minority candidates requires the mobilization of supportive ethnocultural vote and substantial voter turnout. Discussion of electoral success by minority candidates rarely makes the Liberal/minority link, since they are selected and elected in all of the major political parties (Dhillon 2005; Siemiatycki and Matheson 2005). Bird (2005, 82) notes that the won in each of the nineteen most diverse ridings of the Greater Toronto Area in 2004--despite the fact that they ran only four minority candidates there, while the Conservatives and the New Democratic Party (NDP) each ran six. …
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".