A 2017 Horizon Scan of Emerging Issues for Global Conservation and Biological Diversity

This is the eighth such annual horizon scan. An international team with expertise in horizon scanning, science communication, and conservation research, practice, and policy identified 15 issues, following widespread consultation and a Delphi-like scoring process to identify the most important. The issues were wide ranging, and include sand extraction, blockchain technology, use of robotics to combat invasive species, and new developments in energy storage and fuel production. We present the results of our eighth annual horizon scan of emerging issues likely to affect global biological diversity, the environment, and conservation efforts in the future. The potential effects of these novel issues might not yet be fully recognized or understood by the global conservation community, and the issues can be regarded as both opportunities and risks. A diverse international team with collective expertise in horizon scanning, science communication, and conservation research, practice, and policy reviewed 100 potential issues and identified 15 that qualified as emerging, with potential substantial global effects. These issues include new developments in energy storage and fuel production, sand extraction, potential solutions to combat coral bleaching and invasive marine species, and blockchain technology. We present the results of our eighth annual horizon scan of emerging issues likely to affect global biological diversity, the environment, and conservation efforts in the future. The potential effects of these novel issues might not yet be fully recognized or understood by the global conservation community, and the issues can be regarded as both opportunities and risks. A diverse international team with collective expertise in horizon scanning, science communication, and conservation research, practice, and policy reviewed 100 potential issues and identified 15 that qualified as emerging, with potential substantial global effects. These issues include new developments in energy storage and fuel production, sand extraction, potential solutions to combat coral bleaching and invasive marine species, and blockchain technology. We have conducted an annual horizon scan of global conservation issues since 2010 with the aim of highlighting, by consensus, emerging topics that are not yet widely known in the conservation community but could have substantial effects on biological diversity worldwide in the medium to long term. Our iterative, transferable process of horizon scanning, which is designed to be both transparent and democratic, is carried out by a team with a wide range of experiences and areas of expertise. Our aim has been to focus attention and stimulate debate about these subjects, potentially leading to new research foci, policy developments, or business innovations. These responses should help to facilitate better-informed forward-planning. It is difficult to gauge the direct effects of our horizon scans on the research, policy, or business communities, except through personal communication and hearsay. However, several topics recognized in our previous horizon scans received international attention during 2016. For example, we identified microplastics as an emerging issue in 2010 [1Sutherland W.J. et al.A horizon scan of global conservation issues for 2010.Trends Ecol. Evol. 2010; 25: 1-7Abstract Full Text Full Text PDF PubMed Scopus (304) Google Scholar]. There is now substantial action on this issue internationally, with several governments, including those of the USA and the UK, introducing legislative bans on microbeads in cosmetics and detergents, and many cosmetics companies voluntarily committing to halt their use of microplastics by 2020 [2Rochman C.M. et al.Scientific evidence supports a ban on microbeads.Environ. Sci. Technol. 2015; 49: 10759-10761Crossref PubMed Scopus (246) Google Scholar, 3Environmental Audit CommitteeEnvironmental Impact of Microplastics. Fourth Report of Session, 2016-2017. House of Commons Environmental Audit Committee, 2016Google Scholar]. New research on the effects of microbeads has revealed biological responses in both terrestrial and aquatic environments, with evidence demonstrating that microplastics reduce the survival and fitness of earthworms Lumbricus terrestris [4Lwanga H. et al.Microplastics in the terrestrial ecosystem: implications for Lumbricus terrestris (Oligochaeta, Lumbricidae).Environ. Sci. Technol. 2016; 50: 2685-2691Crossref PubMed Scopus (617) Google Scholar] and facilitate the accumulation of sorbed organic pollutants in fish [5Wardrop P. et al.Chemical pollutants sorbed to ingested microbeads from personal care products accumulate in fish.Env. Sci. Technol. 2016; 50: 4037-4044Crossref PubMed Scopus (288) Google Scholar]. Discussion of the use of gene editing to control invasive species or disease vectors, raised in our 2014 horizon scan [6Sutherland W.J. et al.A horizon scan of global conservation issues for 2014.Trends Ecol. Evol. 2014; 29: 15-22Abstract Full Text Full Text PDF PubMed Scopus (82) Google Scholar], has increased dramatically over the past year, with a range of developments using clustered regularly interspaced short palindromic repeats (CRISPR). This approach is already being focused towards controlling diseases such as malaria, Zika, and dengue, by removing disease-carrying female mosquitoes [7Adelman Z.N. Tu Z. Control of mosquito-borne infectious diseases: sex and gene drive.Trends Parasitol. 2016; 32: 219-229Abstract Full Text Full Text PDF PubMed Scopus (73) Google Scholar] or reducing reproduction in female mosquitoes [8Hammond A. et al.A CRISPR-Cas9 gene drive system targeting female reproduction in the malaria mosquito vector Anopheles gambiae.Nat. Biotech. 2016; 34: 78-83Crossref PubMed Scopus (673) Google Scholar]. The consumption, production, and marketing of plant-based proteins and meat substitutes (synthetic meat), another issue identified in 2010 [1Sutherland W.J. et al.A horizon scan of global conservation issues for 2010.Trends Ecol. Evol. 2010; 25: 1-7Abstract Full Text Full Text PDF PubMed Scopus (304) Google Scholar], gained traction in 2016. Several companies produced molecules found in meats, either from stem cells or by fermentation. More recently, we raised the issue of changes in the legal status of nonhuman animals [9Sutherland W.J. et al.A horizon scan of global conservation issues for 2015.Trends Ecol. Evol. 2015; 30: 17-24Abstract Full Text Full Text PDF PubMed Scopus (38) Google Scholar] and in 2016 legislation was introduced by the New Zealand Parliament [the Te Awa Tupua (Whanganui River Claims Settlement) Bill] that, if passed, will legally recognize the Whanganui River as an indivisible and living whole, with both physical and metaphysical elements. The examples above demonstrate that our process has accurately identified issues that have since become more well known and significant; we look forward to further assessing the trajectories of topics identified in past horizon scans. For these issues, the time lag between our identification of an issue and it resulting in practical or policy consequences has been up to 6 years; clearly this is likely to be a lower bound as the first issues were identified only 6 years ago. At the same time, we recognize that not all identified issues will materialize: new innovations may be quickly superseded by others, initial promise may not be realized, risks may curtail adoption, or an unexpected development may shift the course of a trend. The length of time between an issue being raised and its consequences being felt demonstrates the value of our commitment to horizon scanning as a long-term project, and the importance of regularly revisiting issues. The methods used to identify issues were consistent with our previous annual horizon scans [1Sutherland W.J. et al.A horizon scan of global conservation issues for 2010.Trends Ecol. Evol. 2010; 25: 1-7Abstract Full Text Full Text PDF PubMed Scopus (304) Google Scholar, 6Sutherland W.J. et al.A horizon scan of global conservation issues for 2014.Trends Ecol. Evol. 2014; 29: 15-22Abstract Full Text Full Text PDF PubMed Scopus (82) Google Scholar, 9Sutherland W.J. et al.A horizon scan of global conservation issues for 2015.Trends Ecol. Evol. 2015; 30: 17-24Abstract Full Text Full Text PDF PubMed Scopus (38) Google Scholar, 10Sutherland W.J. et al.A horizon scan of global conservation issues for 2011.Trends Ecol. Evol. 2011; 26: 10-16Abstract Full Text Full Text PDF PubMed Scopus (112) Google Scholar, 11Sutherland W.J. et al.A horizon scan of global conservation issues for 2012.Trends Ecol. Evol. 2012; 27: 12-18Abstract Full Text Full Text PDF PubMed Scopus (64) Google Scholar, 12Sutherland W.J. et al.A horizon scan of global conservation issues for 2013.Trends Ecol. Evol. 2013; 28: 16-22Abstract Full Text Full Text PDF PubMed Scopus (65) Google Scholar, 13Sutherland W.J. et al.A horizon scan of global conservation issues for 2016.Trends Ecol. Evol. 2016; 31: 44-53Abstract Full Text Full Text PDF PubMed Scopus (41) Google Scholar]. The 25 core participants in the horizon scan (the authors) applied an inclusive, transparent, and repeatable process that is a modification of the Delphi technique [14Rowe G. Wright G. The Delphi technique as a forecasting tool: issues and analysis.Int. J. Forecasting. 1999; 15: 353-375Crossref Scopus (1424) Google Scholar, 15Sutherland W.J. et al.Methods for collaboratively identifying research priorities and emerging issues in science and policy.Methods Ecol. Evol. 2011; 2: 238-247Crossref Scopus (247) Google Scholar]. Each participant proposed two or more topics, either alone or following consultation with members of their networks within and beyond their organizations. Several participants used social media to canvass followers for issues. Proposed topics were required to meet the criteria of global relevance and limited recognition among conservation professionals. The 99 topics that were submitted reflected the input of an estimated 430 individuals. Short descriptions of the full list of topics were circulated to all participants in July 2016. Participants then scored each topic on a scale from 1 (well known, or poorly known but unlikely to have substantial effects on conservation of biological diversity) to 1000 (poorly known and likely to have substantial effects on the conservation of biological diversity and the environment). Each participant also indicated whether they had heard of each issue; the percentage of participants that were aware of each issue was considered in the final scoring process as a relative measure of the novelty of an issue. Each participant's scores were converted to ranks, and we calculated the median rank of each topic. Given the time available for discussion, we retained the 35 topics with the highest median ranks and three topics that one or more participants thought warranted further discussion, and one additional topic that was not included in the original 99. Two participants, neither of whom had proposed the topic, researched the feasibility, novelty, and likely effects of each topic if realized (three participants examined the newly added topic). The participants convened in Cambridge, UK, in mid-September 2016. 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However, the of this approach are and might be in many for might on developments that this more the use of may be in or to areas for that the of have been used since the of Scholar]. developments have both their and and a range of new is emerging of in and 2013; PubMed Scopus Google Scholar]. such is the of a that and of of and has and effects. for the of such as by and are and the of that and can are The use of potentially to on available could and in more to the of one such that to identify species and their received from the and of The of with of species W.J. et al.A horizon scan of global conservation issues for 2013.Trends Ecol. 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