Notice bibliographique
Résumé
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 1. GLOBAL ASSESSMENT AND OUTLOOK Despite disappointing performance in a few industrial countries in the second quarter of 2009, several countries reached the low point of their business cycle either in the fourth quarter of last year or in the first quarter of this year, providing evidence of leveling out of the global recession. Global economic and financial conditions remain generally encouraging and the worldwide economic recovery is expected to continue at a satisfactory pace in the second half of the year. Even though uncertainty in the financial and economic environment has been reduced from last year's enormous levels, which brought the global economy to a standstill, there are several areas where policy concerns still remain unusually high and cloud the global business outlook. The timing, scope, degree, and effectiveness of last year's massive fiscal and monetary interventions in the United States, Europe, China, and several other nations, combined with asymmetrical reaction of consumers and businesses among countries, have given rise to desynchronization in the recovery paths of commodity and financial markets. Money supply growth and budget deficits reached granthose proportions during the crisis and now they begin to cast shadows with their aftermath, particularly the timing and the extent of exit strategies, including regulation or quasi-socialization of key industries. As a result, growth rates among major industrial countries and economic blocs have diverged and their position in the global business cycle has changed from past patterns. The current country-reallocation in the worldwide business cycle reflects this decade's dependence of the global economy on the fast-growing emerging economies and recognition of their leadership in economic growth and trade. China and India are leading the recovery followed by Japan and Continental Europe. The United States has become a laggard in the recovery phase of the current global business cycle. Following a steep decline by an annual rate of 8.4 percent in the first quarter of 2009, preliminary data on the second quarter of 2009 shows that the combined output of the member countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) - the 30 richest economies in the world - stabilized by posting a zero annual growth rate from the previous quarter. In the second quarter of 2009, real output shrank by 1 .0 percent in the United States and by 1 .2 percent in the 27-country European Union. At the country level, however, real output rose in Germany and France but declined in Italy and the United Kingdom. The Japanese economy expanded by 3.6 percent in the second quarter of 2009, after four consecutive drops when real GDP experienced its largest plunge in more than 50 years. Looking at high-frequency indicators, e-forecasting's global leading economic index suggests that the worldwide recession may end in the fall of 2009. The forward-looking indicator - a composite index of 43 countrywide leading indicators that tracks economic conditions seven to nine months in advance - rose in June for a fourth month in a row, following 10 consecutive monthly declines. More important, the indicator's six-month annual growth rate - designed to provide early signals of changing directions in global economic activity between expansions and slowdowns - ended a downswing of 13 consecutive monthly declines, posting a near zero negative reading of just 0.3 percent in June of 2009. Signals from e-forecasting's country leading indicators from around the globe display either a slower pace in declines of future economic activity or positive growth rates - a prerequisite for global economic recovery ahead. The recovery evidence come from North America, many European economies, Argentina, Chile, Russia, India, China, Singapore, Indonesia, Taiwan, and Dubai. Our central forecast projects global output to expand by 2. …
Récupéré en direct depuis OpenAlex et désinversé. Les résumés ne sont pas conservés dans cette base de données : les index inversés représentent 8,6 Go des 9,3 Go de texte de la base, et le serveur dispose de 13 Go libres.
Comment cette classification a été obtenuedéplier
Prédiction distillée sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Apprise à partir de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Gemma. Le mode candidate est l'union des têtes enseignantes seuillées; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont ni des étiquettes humaines ni des étiquettes directes de modèles de pointe.
Scores Codex et Gemma par catégorie
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,000 | 0,001 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Communication savante | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Science ouverte | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule tête enseignante, pas un consensus.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».