Notice bibliographique
Résumé
I. GLOBAL ASSESSMENT AND OUTLOOKThe weak global economic recovery is expected to continue over the forecast horizon with changing speed patterns across economic blocs. The Euro Area's second recession in five years will be over in the second half of 2013, when another anemic and fragile recovery is expected to begin for 2014. Growth in the U.S. economy will further weaken this year amid fiscal consolidation and the beginning of a slowdown in the speed of money printing. In 2014, U.S. growth will average only 2%, substantially below its long-term pace of 3.3%. Lastly, growth in emerging economies has begun its four-year convergence to a normal sustainable rate of 5% following the excessive advances of 7% to 8% of the last decade.In sum, the world economy is forecast to continue its recovery over the next three years with some regional mini soft patches around a modest growth trend. Downward risks still remain, despite bailouts and regulatory reforms. Monetization of public and private debt along speculative asset investments in a low interest rates and high tax rates environment may easily ignite substantial corrections with adverse effects on overall economic growth, jobs, and confidence in the markets.Global trade growth has been recently suppressed with the volume of merchandise trade in 2012 advancing at 2.7%, the same as the estimated 2.7% growth in world real GDP. This is in contrast with the pre-crisis period as well as during the 2010-11 recovery, when trade rose nearly twice the growth of real GDP. During 2013-2015, the alignment of trade growth towards output growth is forecast to slowly return to pre-crisis trends. Growth in global merchandise trade is forecast to average 5%, while global real GDP will average 3.2%.II. SHORT-TERM INDICATORS AND FORECASTSThe baseline forecast incorporates major findings of the World Economic Survey, which was conducted in the second quarterof 2013, bytheGerman IfoInstituteand the Paris-based International Chamber of Commerce. About 1,200 executives from 125 countries have indicated that global economic activity stalled in the current quarter, but they expect a recovery over the next six months. The major findings of the second quarter's survey are as follows:* Worldwide, executives evaluated the current economic situation, the second quarter of 2013, to be a little below satisfactory levels, led by low levels of consumer expenditures. They found economic activity in their countries in the second quarter of 2013 to be only slightly better than in the second quarterof 2012. Most important, regarding the future, executives are optimistic, expecting economic conditions in the third quarter of 2013 to be above those prevailing in the second quarter of 2013.* On a regional basis, North American executives assessed the current economic situation to be below satisfactory levels and better than a year ago. Looking forward, business experts from the United States and Canada expect economic conditions to get better in the next six months. In Asia, executives appraised the current economic situation to be at satisfactory levels and slightly better than a year ago; they were very optimistic about the future, expecting economic activity in the next six months to be better than in the second quarter of 2013. In Western Europe, executives' appraisals of current conditions were below satisfactory levels and inferior to the economic activity they experienced in the second quarter of 2012; expectations of European business executives on future economic conditions signaled a strong level of optimism providing some support that the recession may end in the second half of 2013.* With res pect to prices, survey participants expect average worldwide inflation over the next two quarters to be slightly above current levels.* Looking at world trade, the business executives'combined expectations predict the volume of both exports and imports to improve in the next two quarters compared to present trade flows in the second quarter of 2013. …
Récupéré en direct depuis OpenAlex et désinversé. Les résumés ne sont pas conservés dans cette base de données : les index inversés représentent 8,6 Go des 9,3 Go de texte de la base, et le serveur dispose de 13 Go libres.
Comment cette classification a été obtenuedéplier
Prédiction distillée sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Apprise à partir de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Gemma. Le mode candidate est l'union des têtes enseignantes seuillées; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont ni des étiquettes humaines ni des étiquettes directes de modèles de pointe.
Scores Codex et Gemma par catégorie
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,000 | 0,001 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Communication savante | 0,000 | 0,001 |
| Science ouverte | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule tête enseignante, pas un consensus.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».