Bibliographic record
Abstract
I. GLOBAL ASSESSMENT AND OUTLOOKThe weak global economic recovery is expected to continue over the forecast horizon with changing speed patterns across economic blocs. The Euro Area's second recession in five years will be over in the second half of 2013, when another anemic and fragile recovery is expected to begin for 2014. Growth in the U.S. economy will further weaken this year amid fiscal consolidation and the beginning of a slowdown in the speed of money printing. In 2014, U.S. growth will average only 2%, substantially below its long-term pace of 3.3%. Lastly, growth in emerging economies has begun its four-year convergence to a normal sustainable rate of 5% following the excessive advances of 7% to 8% of the last decade.In sum, the world economy is forecast to continue its recovery over the next three years with some regional mini soft patches around a modest growth trend. Downward risks still remain, despite bailouts and regulatory reforms. Monetization of public and private debt along speculative asset investments in a low interest rates and high tax rates environment may easily ignite substantial corrections with adverse effects on overall economic growth, jobs, and confidence in the markets.Global trade growth has been recently suppressed with the volume of merchandise trade in 2012 advancing at 2.7%, the same as the estimated 2.7% growth in world real GDP. This is in contrast with the pre-crisis period as well as during the 2010-11 recovery, when trade rose nearly twice the growth of real GDP. During 2013-2015, the alignment of trade growth towards output growth is forecast to slowly return to pre-crisis trends. Growth in global merchandise trade is forecast to average 5%, while global real GDP will average 3.2%.II. SHORT-TERM INDICATORS AND FORECASTSThe baseline forecast incorporates major findings of the World Economic Survey, which was conducted in the second quarterof 2013, bytheGerman IfoInstituteand the Paris-based International Chamber of Commerce. About 1,200 executives from 125 countries have indicated that global economic activity stalled in the current quarter, but they expect a recovery over the next six months. The major findings of the second quarter's survey are as follows:* Worldwide, executives evaluated the current economic situation, the second quarter of 2013, to be a little below satisfactory levels, led by low levels of consumer expenditures. They found economic activity in their countries in the second quarter of 2013 to be only slightly better than in the second quarterof 2012. Most important, regarding the future, executives are optimistic, expecting economic conditions in the third quarter of 2013 to be above those prevailing in the second quarter of 2013.* On a regional basis, North American executives assessed the current economic situation to be below satisfactory levels and better than a year ago. Looking forward, business experts from the United States and Canada expect economic conditions to get better in the next six months. In Asia, executives appraised the current economic situation to be at satisfactory levels and slightly better than a year ago; they were very optimistic about the future, expecting economic activity in the next six months to be better than in the second quarter of 2013. In Western Europe, executives' appraisals of current conditions were below satisfactory levels and inferior to the economic activity they experienced in the second quarter of 2012; expectations of European business executives on future economic conditions signaled a strong level of optimism providing some support that the recession may end in the second half of 2013.* With res pect to prices, survey participants expect average worldwide inflation over the next two quarters to be slightly above current levels.* Looking at world trade, the business executives'combined expectations predict the volume of both exports and imports to improve in the next two quarters compared to present trade flows in the second quarter of 2013. …
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".