Estimated transmissibility and impact of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 in England
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Résumé
A severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variant, VOC 202012/01 (lineage B.1.1.7), emerged in southeast England in September 2020 and is rapidly spreading toward fixation. Using a variety of statistical and dynamic modeling approaches, we estimate that this variant has a 43 to 90% (range of 95% credible intervals, 38 to 130%) higher reproduction number than preexisting variants. A fitted two-strain dynamic transmission model shows that VOC 202012/01 will lead to large resurgences of COVID-19 cases. Without stringent control measures, including limited closure of educational institutions and a greatly accelerated vaccine rollout, COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths across England in the first 6 months of 2021 were projected to exceed those in 2020. VOC 202012/01 has spread globally and exhibits a similar transmission increase (59 to 74%) in Denmark, Switzerland, and the United States.
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La notice
- Revue
- Science
- Thématique
- SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 Research
- Domaine
- Medicine
- Établissements canadiens
- —
- Organismes subventionnaires
- Research EnglandStatens Serum InstitutMedical Research CouncilHôpitaux Universitaires de GenèveCANDU Owners GroupPublic Health EnglandResearch Councils UKNational Institute of General Medical SciencesNational Institute for Health and Care ResearchNational Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research UnitAcademy of Medical SciencesWellcome TrustEconomic and Social Research CouncilForeign, Commonwealth and Development OfficeEuropean CommissionUniversity of BernUniversitätsspital BaselUniversité de SfaxUK Research and InnovationEidgenössische Technische Hochschule ZürichUniversity of KentuckyBill and Melinda Gates Foundation
- Mots-clés
- Transmissibility (structural dynamics)Lineage (genetic)Transmission (telecommunications)Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)Incidence (geometry)VirologyVirusCoronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)Coronavirus2019-20 coronavirus outbreakBiologyMutationSars virusMedicineDiseaseOutbreakGeneticsGeneInfectious disease (medical specialty)Computer scienceInternal medicine
- Résumé présent dans OpenAlex
- oui