Optimal design of experiments for effective modeling of atrazine degradation in soils

The natural degradation pathways of the herbicide atrazine (AT) are highly complex. These pathways involve the metabolic activity of several bacterial guilds (that use AT as a source of carbon, nitrogen or both) and abiotic degradation mechanisms. The co-occurrence of multiple degradation pathways, combined with challenges in quantifying bacterial guilds and relevant intermediate metabolites, has led to the development of competing model formulations, which all represent valid descriptions of the fate of AT. A proper understanding of the fate of this complex compound is needed to develop effective management and mitigation strategies. Here, we propose a model discrimination process in combination with prospective optimal design of experiments. We performed Monte-Carlo simulations using a first-order model that reflects a simple reaction chain of complete AT degradation and a set of Monod-based model variants that consider different bacterial consortia and degradation pathways. We used a Bayesian statistical analysis of these simulation ensembles to simulate virtual degradation experiments and chemical analysis strategies, thus obtaining predictions on the utility of experiments to deliver conclusive data for model discrimination. To do so, we defined different experimental protocols including a combination of: i) the metabolites to measure (AT, metabolites and CO2), ii) sampling frequency (sampling every day, every two days and every four days), iii) features difficult to quantify (specific bacterial guilds). As a statistical metric to measure the conclusiveness of these virtual experiments, we used the so-called energy distance. Our results show that simulated AT degradation pathways following first-order reaction chains can be clearly distinguished from simulations using Monod-based models. Within the Monod-based models, we detected three clusters of models that differ in the number of bacterial guilds involved in AT degradation. Experimental designs considering main AT metabolites and sampling frequencies of once every two or four days at durations of 50 or 100 days provided the most informative data to discriminate models. Including measurements of bacterial guilds only slightly improved model discrimination. Our study highlights that environmental fate studies should prioritize measuring metabolites to elucidate active AT degradation pathways in soil and identify robust model formulations supporting risk assessment and mitigation strategies.

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