Optimism bias in the design of phase III randomized control trials (RCTs) evaluating PD-1/PD-L1 targeting monoclonal antibodies (mAbs).
Notice bibliographique
Résumé
e18616 Background: PD-1/PD-L1 targeting monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) improve outcomes in multiple cancer types. Multiple mAbs are in clinical development, and many randomized control trials (RCTs) have been completed or are in progress. These RCTs compete for limited clinical trials infrastructure, human resources and patients. Since the hypothesized benefit of an intervention is a critical determinant of the number of patients required for an RCT, it is crucial that the expected benefit be estimated appropriately. We examined the hypothesized hazard ratio (HHR) and the observed hazard ratio (OHR) in RCTs evaluating PD-1/PD-L1 targeting mAbs. Methods: Publications of RCTs evaluating at least one PD-1/PD-L1 targeting mAbs approved by the US Food and Drug Administration were identified through PubMed searches. The primary publication for each RCT and its associated protocol were retrieved. Two investigators independently extracted HHR, OHR for the primary endpoint among other data elements. The differences (∆HR) in HHR and OHR were analyzed statistically. Updated OHRs (uOHR) were extracted from reports with extended follow-ups. Results: 49 RCTs enrolling 36867 patients were included. 45/49 RCTs were in the palliative setting. HHR was met or exceeded in 22 (45%) RCTs. The mean HHR and OHR were 0.672 and 0.738, respectively. The mean ∆HR was 0.067 (range: -0.300 to 0.895, 95% confidence interval = 0.003 – 0.130). A lower magnitude of effect than hypothesized in 12/29 RCTs in non-small cell lung cancer, melanoma and renal cell carcinoma, but in 15/20 RCTs in other cancer types. OHR was ≥ 1.0 in 6 RCTs (12%). In the palliative setting, ∆HR was larger in more heavily pre-treated patients. PD-L1 expression was not associated with magnitude of effect. However, a higher magnitude of effect was observed for RCTs published in the New England Journal of Medicine. For 18 RCTs with extended follow-ups, uOHR was higher than OHR in 8. Conclusions: The majority of published RCTs evaluating PD-1/PD-L1 targeting mAbs did not achieve their hypothesized magnitude of effect. Investigators’ optimism regarding these agents should be combined with more realistic expectations. The optimism bias requires attention from the cancer clinical research community given the number of these agents in development and the intense interest in evaluating these agents in various disease settings.
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Comment cette classification a été obtenuedéplier
Prédiction distillée sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Apprise à partir de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Gemma. Le mode candidate est l'union des têtes enseignantes seuillées; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont ni des étiquettes humaines ni des étiquettes directes de modèles de pointe.
Scores Codex et Gemma par catégorie
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,438 | 0,945 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,013 | 0,003 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,000 | 0,001 |
| Communication savante | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Science ouverte | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,001 | 0,002 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,001 | 0,000 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; les deux têtes enseignantes s’accordent sur ce qui est montré ici.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».