Spatial, temporal, and demographic patterns in prevalence of smoking tobacco use and attributable disease burden in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
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Résumé
BACKGROUND: Ending the global tobacco epidemic is a defining challenge in global health. Timely and comprehensive estimates of the prevalence of smoking tobacco use and attributable disease burden are needed to guide tobacco control efforts nationally and globally. METHODS: We estimated the prevalence of smoking tobacco use and attributable disease burden for 204 countries and territories, by age and sex, from 1990 to 2019 as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study. We modelled multiple smoking-related indicators from 3625 nationally representative surveys. We completed systematic reviews and did Bayesian meta-regressions for 36 causally linked health outcomes to estimate non-linear dose-response risk curves for current and former smokers. We used a direct estimation approach to estimate attributable burden, providing more comprehensive estimates of the health effects of smoking than previously available. FINDINGS: Globally in 2019, 1·14 billion (95% uncertainty interval 1·13-1·16) individuals were current smokers, who consumed 7·41 trillion (7·11-7·74) cigarette-equivalents of tobacco in 2019. Although prevalence of smoking had decreased significantly since 1990 among both males (27·5% [26·5-28·5] reduction) and females (37·7% [35·4-39·9] reduction) aged 15 years and older, population growth has led to a significant increase in the total number of smokers from 0·99 billion (0·98-1·00) in 1990. Globally in 2019, smoking tobacco use accounted for 7·69 million (7·16-8·20) deaths and 200 million (185-214) disability-adjusted life-years, and was the leading risk factor for death among males (20·2% [19·3-21·1] of male deaths). 6·68 million [86·9%] of 7·69 million deaths attributable to smoking tobacco use were among current smokers. INTERPRETATION: In the absence of intervention, the annual toll of 7·69 million deaths and 200 million disability-adjusted life-years attributable to smoking will increase over the coming decades. Substantial progress in reducing the prevalence of smoking tobacco use has been observed in countries from all regions and at all stages of development, but a large implementation gap remains for tobacco control. Countries have a clear and urgent opportunity to pass strong, evidence-based policies to accelerate reductions in the prevalence of smoking and reap massive health benefits for their citizens. FUNDING: Bloomberg Philanthropies and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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La notice
- Revue
- The Lancet
- Thématique
- Smoking Behavior and Cessation
- Domaine
- Medicine
- Établissements canadiens
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- Organismes subventionnaires
- Sydney Medical SchoolFundação para a Ciência e a TecnologiaNational Health and Medical Research CouncilMedical Research CouncilSchool of Public Health and Family Medicine, University of Cape TownUniversity of Oklahoma Health Sciences CenterGeorge Institute for Global HealthCentre for Heart Rhythm Disorders, University of AdelaideWestern Sydney UniversityUniversitas Muhammadiyah SurakartaApplied Molecular Biosciences UnitHáskólinn í ReykjavíkFakultet Medicinskih Nauka, Univerziteta U KragujevcuAlexandria UniversityBrown UniversityTarbiat Modares UniversityUppsala UniversitetUniversità degli Studi dell'AquilaUniversity of WarwickHokkaido UniversityUniversity of GhanaKhalifa University of Science, Technology and ResearchNational Authority for Scientific Research and InnovationUniversity of Cape TownNational Institutes of HealthChinese University of Hong KongUniversiti Sains MalaysiaUniversiti Kebangsaan MalaysiaGolestan University of Medical SciencesUniversity of OklahomaTehran University of Medical Sciences and Health ServicesUnitatea Executiva pentru Finantarea Invatamantului Superior, a Cercetarii, Dezvoltarii si InovariiKuwait UniversityUniversitas AirlanggaNational Research University Higher School of EconomicsIstituto Superiore di SanitàIslamic Azad UniversityKyung Hee UniversityEmory UniversityAutoritatea Natională pentru Cercetare StiintificăKosin UniversityAin Shams UniversityMonash UniversityBirjand University of Medical SciencesLunds UniversitetUniversity of SydneyCharles Sturt UniversityMinistério da Ciência, Tecnologia e Ensino SuperiorDepartment of Biotechnology, Ministry of Science and Technology, IndiaSouth African Medical Research CouncilLondon South Bank UniversityMadda Walabu UniversityNational Heart Foundation of AustraliaUniversity of TabrizMoscow Institute of Physics and TechnologyUniversity of Central FloridaUniversity of TasmaniaNankai UniversityDepartment of Social Services, Australian GovernmentEscola Nacional de Saúde Pública Sérgio AroucaKing's College LondonWashington State UniversityDepartment of Health and Social CareUniversidade Federal de Santa CatarinaHamad Bin Khalifa UniversityThe Wellcome Trust DBT India AllianceNational Institute for Health and Care ResearchUniversity of Central PunjabTrường Đại học Nguyễn Tất ThànhAlexander von Humboldt-StiftungMashhad University of Medical SciencesMinistarstvo Prosvete, Nauke i Tehnološkog RazvojaPublic Health EnglandJames Cook UniversityBloomberg PhilanthropiesCollege of Science and Engineering, University of MinnesotaJohns Hopkins UniversityWellcome TrustTrường Đại học Duy TânBill and Melinda Gates FoundationInstituto de Salud Carlos IIIUniversità degli Studi di MilanoKing's College Hospital NHS Foundation TrustLa Trobe UniversityFlorida International UniversityU.S. Department of DefenseArabian Gulf UniversityCancer Research UKDeakin UniversityOttawa Hospital Research InstituteNational Cancer InstituteUniversity of South CarolinaUniversity of BathKrishna Institute Of Medical Sciences Deemed To Be UniversityBinzhou Medical UniversityTufts Medical CenterBarts CharityKaiser PermanenteHamad Medical CorporationNational Center for Advancing Translational SciencesBundesministerium für Bildung und ForschungBritish Heart FoundationTabriz University of Medical SciencesAuckland University of Technology, New ZealandSecretaría Nacional de Ciencia, Tecnología e InnovaciónFederation University AustraliaNational Institute for Health Research Applied Research Collaboration South LondonMahatma Gandhi UniversityU.S. Department of Veterans AffairsKarolinska InstitutetYale UniversityBournemouth UniversitySan Diego State UniversityUniversidade Federal do Espírito SantoIndian Institute of Technology KanpurNational Heart, Lung, and Blood InstituteOhio State UniversityBloomberg Family Foundation
- Mots-clés
- MedicineTobacco controlDisease burdenEnvironmental healthBurden of diseaseDemographyDiseasePopulationGlobal healthSmoking prevalenceEpidemiologyEstimationPublic healthPathology
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