Enregistrement W3202618816 · doi:10.1016/s2352-3018(21)00152-1

Global, regional, and national sex-specific burden and control of the HIV epidemic, 1990–2019, for 204 countries and territories: the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2019

2021· article· en· W3202618816 sur OpenAlexfundno aff

Deepa Jahagirdar, Magdalene K Walters, Amanda Novotney, Edmond D Brewer, Tahvi Frank, Austin Carter, Molly H Biehl, Hedayat Abbastabar, E S Abhilash, Eman Abu‐Gharbieh, Laith J. Abu‐Raddad, Victor Adekanmbi, Daniel A Adeyinka, Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani, Saira Afzal, Soodabeh Aghababaei, Bright Opoku Ahinkorah, Sajjad Ahmad, Keivan Ahmadi, Sepideh Ahmadi, Ehsan Ahmadpour, Muktar Beshir Ahmed, Tarik A. Rashid, Yusra Ahmed Salih, Addis Aklilu, Tayyaba Akram, Chisom Joyqueenet Akunna, Hanadi Al Hamad, Fares Alahdab, Fahad Alanezi, Екатерина Александрова, Kefyalew Addis Alene, Liaqat Ali, Vahid Alipour, Sami Almustanyir, Nelson Alvis‐Guzmán, Edward Kwabena Ameyaw, Hubert Amu, Cătălina Liliana Andrei, Tudorel Andrei, Davood Anvari, Jalal Arabloo, Olatunde Aremu, Judie Arulappan, Desta Debalkie Atnafu, Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla, Muluken Altaye Ayza, Samad Azari, B B Darshan, Maciej Banach, Till Bärnighausen, Fabio Barra, Amadou Barrow, Sanjay Basu, Shahrzad Bazargan‐Hejazi, Habtamu Gebrehana Belay, Tezera Moshago Berheto, Woldesellassie Bezabhe, Yihienew Mequanint Bezabih, Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula, Nikha Bhardwaj, Pankaj Bhardwaj, Krittika Bhattacharyya, Sadia Bibi, Ali Bijani, Catherine Bisignano, Obasanjo Afolabi Bolarinwa, Archith Boloor, Azizbek Boltaev, Н. И. Брико, Danilo Buonsenso, Katrin Burkart, Zahid A Butt, Chao Cao, Jaykaran Charan, Souranshu Chatterjee, Soosanna Kumary Chattu, Vijay Kumar Chattu, Sonali G Choudhari, Dinh‐Toi Chu, Rosa A S Couto, Richard G. Cowden, Berihun Assefa Dachew, Omid Dadras, Amare Belachew Dagnew, Saad M A Dahlawi, Xiaochen Dai, Lalit Dandona, Rakhi Dandona, José das Neves, Louisa Degenhardt, Feleke Mekonnen Demeke, Abebaw Alemayehu Desta, Keshab Deuba, Deepak Dhamnetiya, Govinda Prasad Dhungana, Mostafa Dianatinasab, Daniel Díaz, Shirin Djalalinia, Linh Phuong Doan, Fariba Dorostkar, Hisham Atan Edinur, Andem Effiong, Sahar Eftekharzadeh, Maysaa El Sayed Zaki, Rajesh Elayedath, Muhammed Elhadi, Shaimaa I El-Jaafary, Ziad El‐Khatib, Aisha Elsharkawy, Aklilu Endalamaw, Aman Yesuf Endries, Sharareh Eskandarieh, Ifeanyi Jude Ezeonwumelu, Sayeh Ezzikouri, Mohammad Farahmand, Emerito Jose A Faraon, Abidemi Omolara Fasanmi, Simone Ferrero, Lorenzo Ferro Desideri, Irina Filip, Florian Fischer, Morẹ́nikẹ́ Oluwátóyìn Foláyan, Masoud Foroutan, Takeshi Fukumoto, Mohamed M. Gad, Muktar A Gadanya, Abhay Gaidhane, Tushar Garg, Eyob Alemayehu Gebreyohannes, Hailay Abrha Gesesew, Abera Getachew Obsa, Keyghobad Ghadiri, Ahmad Ghashghaee, Syed Amir Gilani, Themba G. Ginindza, Ionela-Roxana Glăvan, Е. В. Глушкова, Mahaveer Golechha, H. C. Gugnani, Bhawna Gupta, Sapna Gupta, Veer Bala Gupta, Vivek Gupta, Samer Hamidi, Senad Handanagić, Shafiul Haque, Harapan Harapan, Arief Hargono, Ahmed I Hasaballah, Abdiwahab Hashi, Shoaib Hassan, Soheil Hassanipour, Khezar Hayat, Ileana Heredia-Pi, Kamal Hezam, Ramesh Holla, Praveen Hoogar, Mohammad Enamul Hoque, Mehdi Hosseinzadeh, Mohamed Hsaïri, Rabia Hussain, Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye, Bulat Idrisov, Kevin S Ikuta, Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi, Irena Ilić, Milena Ilić, Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani, M Mofizul Islam, Nahlah Elkudssiah Ismail, Ramaiah Itumalla, Ihoghosa Iyamu, Roxana Jabbarinejad, Vardhmaan Jain, Ranil Jayawardena, Ravi Prakash Jha, Nitin Joseph, Ali Kabir, Zubair Kabir, Rohollah Kalhor, Feroze Kaliyadan, Ashwin Kamath, Tanuj Kanchan, Himal Kandel, Getinet Kassahun, Patrick DMC Katoto, Gbenga A Kayode, Ermiyas Mulu Kebede, Hafte Kahsay Kebede, Himanshu Khajuria, Nauman Khalid, Ejaz Ahmad Khan, Gulfaraz Khan, Khaled Khatab, Min Seo Kim, Yun Jin Kim, Adnan Kısa, Sezer Kısa, Sonali Kochhar, Vladimir Andreevich Korshunov, Parvaiz A Koul, Sindhura Lakshmi Koulmane Laxminarayana, Ai Koyanagi, Kewal Krishan, Barthélémy Kuate Defo, G Anil Kumar, Manasi Kumar, Nithin Kumar, Alexander Kwarteng, Iván Landires, Savita Lasrado, Zohra S Lassi, Jeffrey V. Lazarus, Jane Lee, Yeong Yeh Lee, Kate E LeGrand, Christine Lin, Xuefeng Liu, Emilie R Maddison, Hassan Magdy Abd El Razek, Phetole Walter Mahasha, Azeem Majeed, Alaa Makki, Ahmad Azam Malik, Mohammad Alì Mansournia, Francisco Rogerlândio Martins‐Melo, Seyedeh Zahra Masoumi, Ziad A. Memish, Ritesh G. Menezes, Endalkachew Worku Mengesha, Hayimro Edemealem Merie, Amanual Getnet Mersha, Tomislav Meštrović, Peter Meylakhs, Nour Mheidly, Ted R. Miller, Andreea Mirică, Babak Moazen, Yousef Mohammad, Mokhtar Mohammadi, Arif Ahmed Mohammed, Salahuddin Mohammed, Shafiu Mohammed, Modhurima Moitra, Ali H. Mokdad, Mariam Molokhia, Mohammad Ali Moni, Ghobad Moradi, Yousef Moradi, Christine Mpundu‐Kaambwa, Sumaira Mubarik, Sandra B. Munro, Lillian Mwanri, Jean B. Nachega, Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan, Aparna Ichalangod Narayana, Muhammad Naveed, Biswa Prakash Nayak, Sabina O. Nduaguba, Sandhya Neupane Kandel, Georges Nguefack‐Tsague, Trang Huyen Nguyen, Molly R Nixon, Chukwudi A Nnaji, Jean Jacques Noubiap, Virginia Núñez-Samudio, Thomas Nyirenda, Onome Bright Oghenetega, Andrew T Olagunju, Babayemi O. Olakunde, Oluwatomi Owopetu, P A Mahesh, Jagadish Rao Padubidri, Smita Pakhalé, Tarang Parekh, Fatemeh Pashazadeh Kan, Shrikant Pawar, Veincent Christian Filipino Pepito, Emmanuel Peprah, Marina Pinheiro, Khem Narayan Pokhrel, Р. В. Полибин, Richard Charles G Pollok, Maarten J. Postma, Amir Radfar, Raghu Radhakrishnan, Fakher Rahim, Vafa Rahimi‐Movaghar, Shadi Rahimzadeh, Mosiur Rahman, Amir Masoud Rahmani, Pradhum Ram, Chhabi Lal Ranabhat, Priyanga Ranasinghe, Chythra R Rao, Sowmya J Rao, Priya Rathi, David Laith Rawaf, Salman Rawaf, Lemma Demissie Regassa, Inayat Ur Rehman, André M. N. Renzaho, Nima Rezaei, Omid Rezahosseini, Mohammad Sadegh Rezai, Aziz Rezapour, Rezaul Karim Ripon, Voilet Rodrigues, Denis O Roshchin, Godfrey Mutashambara Rwegerera, Umar Saeed, Sahar Saeedi Moghaddam, Rajesh Sagar, KM Saif‐Ur‐Rahman, Marwa Rashad Salem, Mehrnoosh Samaei, Abdallah M Samy, Milena M Santric-Milicevic, Satish Saroshe, Brijesh Sathian, Maheswar Satpathy, Monika Sawhney, Aletta E. Schutte, Allen Seylani, Masood Ali Shaikh, Mohammed Feyisso Shaka, Hina Shamshad, Morteza Shamsizadeh, Mohammed Shannawaz, Adithi Shetty, Jae Il Shin, K. M. Shivakumar, Jasvinder A. Singh, Valentin Yurievich Skryabin, Anna Aleksandrovna Skryabina, Ranjani Somayaji, Sergey Soshnikov, Emma Elizabeth Spurlock, Dan J. Stein, Mu’awiyyah Babale Sufiyan, Hooman Tadbiri, Birkneh Tilahun Tadesse, Eyayou Girma Tadesse, Animut Tagele Tamiru, Elvis Enowbeyang Tarkang, Nuno Taveira, Yohannes Tekalegn, Fisaha Haile Tesfay, Gizachew Assefa Tessema, Rekha Thapar, Marcos Roberto Tovani‐Palone, Eugenio Traini, Bach Xuan Tran, Alexander C. Tsai, Biruk Shalmeno Tusa, Saif Ullah, Chukwuma David Umeokonkwo, Bhaskaran Unnikrishnan, Sahel Valadan Tahbaz, Jorge Hugo Villafañe, Sergey Konstantinovitch Vladimirov, Bay Vo, Avina Vongpradith, Giang Thu Vu, Yasir Waheed, Richard G. Wamai, Guan Wang, Yanzhong Wang, Paul Ward, Ronny Westerman, Andrea Sylvia Winkler, Lalit Yadav, Seyed Hossein Yahyazadeh Jabbari, Taklo Simeneh Yazie, Siyan Yi, Vahit Yiğit, Birhanu Wubale Yirdaw, Naohiro Yonemoto, Chuanhua Yu, Ismaeel Yunusa, Михаил Сергеевич Застрожин, Anasthasia Zastrozhina, Zhi-Jiang Zhang, Alimuddin Zumla, Joshua A. Salomon, Jeffrey W. Eaton, Mohsen Naghavi, Laura Dwyer‐Lindgren, Haidong Wang, Stephen S Lim, Simon I Hay, Christopher J L Murray, Hmwe Hmwe Kyu

Notice bibliographique

RevueThe Lancet HIV · 2021

Typearticle

Langueen

DomaineMedicine

ThématiqueHIV/AIDS Research and Interventions

Établissements canadiensnon disponible

Organismes subventionnairesEuropean and Developing Countries Clinical Trials PartnershipInstitute of Infection and ImmunityClinical and Translational Science Institute, University of California, Los AngelesDivision of Human Resource DevelopmentDivision of Mathematical SciencesFogarty International CenterNational Institute of Allergy and Infectious DiseasesResearch Management Centre, International Islamic University MalaysiaHorizon 2020National Drug and Alcohol Research CentreGuy's and St Thomas' NHS Foundation TrustFundação para a Ciência e a TecnologiaNational Health and Medical Research CouncilMedical Research CouncilSchool of Public Health and Family Medicine, University of Cape TownQatar National Research FundDirectorate for Biological SciencesNational Institutes of HealthDebre Tabor UniversityDebre Markos UniversityForeign, Commonwealth and Development OfficeRijksuniversiteit GroningenAteneo de Manila UniversityWuhan UniversityJoint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDSFrankfurt University of Applied SciencesI.M. Sechenov First Moscow State Medical UniversityKurdistan University Of Medical SciencesGeneralitat de CatalunyaUniverzita Karlova v PrazeUniversitat Autònoma de BarcelonaKwame Nkrumah University of Science and TechnologyUniversité de NantesUniversity of Health and Allied SciencesUniversitatea de Medicină şi Farmacie "Carol Davila" BucureştiAhvaz Jundishapur University of Medical SciencesUnited Arab Emirates UniversityCentre for Heart Rhythm Disorders, University of AdelaideWestern Sydney UniversityA.P. Møller og Hustru Chastine Mc-Kinney Møllers Fond til almene FormaalDepartment of Medicine, Ottawa HospitalUniversità Cattolica del Sacro CuoreRajshahi UniversityCalifornia Department of Fish and GameUniversity of Cape TownCenter for Drug Use and HIV ResearchHaramaya UniversityAbdul Wali Khan University MardanUniversità degli Studi di GenovaAlfaisal UniversityUniversity of TasmaniaUniversity of WaterlooUniwersytet ŁódzkiKing Abdulaziz UniversityDepartment of Health and Aged Care, Australian GovernmentCentres de Recerca de CatalunyaInstitució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis AvançatsSouth African Medical Research CouncilBundesministerium für GesundheitInyuvesi Yakwazulu-NataliEuropean CommissionAhmadu Bello UniversityElse Kröner-Fresenius-StiftungNIHR Biomedical Research Centre, Royal Marsden NHS Foundation Trust/Institute of Cancer ResearchUniversity of CalcuttaKing Saud UniversityNational Center for Advancing Translational SciencesBundesministerium für Bildung und ForschungPublic Health EnglandFonds National de la Recherche LuxembourgMinisterio de Ciencia, Innovación y UniversidadesFlinders UniversityDeutsche ForschungsgemeinschaftUniversity College LondonUniversity Grants CommissionImam Abdulrahman Bin Faisal UniversityUniversity of Central FloridaNational Institute for Health and Care ResearchBabol University of Medical SciencesWorld Health OrganizationMazandaran University of Medical SciencesGeorge Mason UniversityYork UniversityInvitaeHarvard UniversityManipal Academy of Higher EducationDeanship of Scientific Research, Prince Sattam bin Abdulaziz UniversityAustralian GovernmentUniversitat de BarcelonaImperial College LondonKing's College LondonTechnische Universität BerlinNational Institute of Mental HealthCase Western Reserve UniversityUniversity of Agriculture, FaisalabadInstitute for Health Metrics and EvaluationAlexander von Humboldt-StiftungChandigarh UniversityIran University of Medical SciencesJohns Hopkins UniversityWellcome TrustRussian Science FoundationUniversity of California, Los AngelesSultan Qaboos UniversityUniversity of PennsylvaniaXiamen UniversityStudent Research Committee, Tabriz University of Medical SciencesBahir Dar UniversityEIT HealthMcMaster UniversityNational Research University Higher School of EconomicsUniversity of JeddahOttawa Hospital Research InstituteSecretaría Nacional de Ciencia, Tecnología e InnovaciónJazan UniversityUniversity of Central PunjabHamad Medical CorporationDepartment of Anthropology, University of California, Los AngelesMiddlesex UniversityKasturba Medical College, ManipalNational Institute on Drug AbuseBirmingham City UniversityUniversity of New South WalesWashington University in St. LouisUniversity of PittsburghYale UniversityVirginia Marine Resources CommissionMekelle UniversityLa Trobe UniversityCurtin University of TechnologyBill and Melinda Gates Foundation

Mots-clésMedicineHuman immunodeficiency virus (HIV)Environmental healthMen who have sex with menEpidemic controlGlobal healthCoronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)DemographyVirologyPublic healthDiseaseSyphilisPathology

DOI10.1016/s2352-3018(21)00152-1

Résumé

récupéré en direct d'OpenAlex

BACKGROUND: The sustainable development goals (SDGs) aim to end HIV/AIDS as a public health threat by 2030. Understanding the current state of the HIV epidemic and its change over time is essential to this effort. This study assesses the current sex-specific HIV burden in 204 countries and territories and measures progress in the control of the epidemic. METHODS: To estimate age-specific and sex-specific trends in 48 of 204 countries, we extended the Estimation and Projection Package Age-Sex Model to also implement the spectrum paediatric model. We used this model in cases where age and sex specific HIV-seroprevalence surveys and antenatal care-clinic sentinel surveillance data were available. For the remaining 156 of 204 locations, we developed a cohort-incidence bias adjustment to derive incidence as a function of cause-of-death data from vital registration systems. The incidence was input to a custom Spectrum model. To assess progress, we measured the percentage change in incident cases and deaths between 2010 and 2019 (threshold >75% decline), the ratio of incident cases to number of people living with HIV (incidence-to-prevalence ratio threshold <0·03), and the ratio of incident cases to deaths (incidence-to-mortality ratio threshold <1·0). FINDINGS: In 2019, there were 36·8 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 35·1-38·9) people living with HIV worldwide. There were 0·84 males (95% UI 0·78-0·91) per female living with HIV in 2019, 0·99 male infections (0·91-1·10) for every female infection, and 1·02 male deaths (0·95-1·10) per female death. Global progress in incident cases and deaths between 2010 and 2019 was driven by sub-Saharan Africa (with a 28·52% decrease in incident cases, 95% UI 19·58-35·43, and a 39·66% decrease in deaths, 36·49-42·36). Elsewhere, the incidence remained stable or increased, whereas deaths generally decreased. In 2019, the global incidence-to-prevalence ratio was 0·05 (95% UI 0·05-0·06) and the global incidence-to-mortality ratio was 1·94 (1·76-2·12). No regions met suggested thresholds for progress. INTERPRETATION: Sub-Saharan Africa had both the highest HIV burden and the greatest progress between 1990 and 2019. The number of incident cases and deaths in males and females approached parity in 2019, although there remained more females with HIV than males with HIV. Globally, the HIV epidemic is far from the UNAIDS benchmarks on progress metrics. FUNDING: The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the National Institute of Mental Health of the US National Institutes of Health (NIH), and the National Institute on Aging of the NIH.

Récupéré en direct depuis OpenAlex et désinversé. Les résumés ne sont pas conservés dans cette base de données : les index inversés représentent 8,6 Go des 9,3 Go de texte de la base, et le serveur dispose de 13 Go libres.

Comment cette classification a été obtenuedéplier

Prédiction machine sur la base complète

Imitation des enseignants

Ni prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Le volet Gemma est une étiquette directe du modèle pour chaque travail de la base, lue sur la notice réduite au titre. Le volet Codex est un classifieur appris des 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et calibré sur les taux pondérés de l'échantillon; les champs sans appui suffisant ne portent aucun appel Codex. Le mode candidate est l'union des deux volets; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont pas des étiquettes humaines.

score de la tête « metaresearch » (Codex)0,003

score de la tête « metaresearch » (Gemma)0,004

Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cStatut de validation: machine_predicted_unvalidated

Catégories candidatesaucune

Catégories consensuellesaucune

DomaineSignal candidat: aucune · Signal consensuel: aucune

Devis d'étudeSignal candidat: Observationnel · Signal consensuel: Observationnel

GenreSignal candidat: Empirique · Signal consensuel: Empirique

Score de désaccord entre enseignants0,062

Score d'incertitude au seuil0,124

Scores du classifieur distillé par catégorie (deux têtes)

Catégorie	Codex	Gemma
Métarecherche	0,003	0,004
Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict)	0,000	0,000
Méta-épidémiologie (sens large)	0,000	0,001
Bibliométrie	0,001	0,002
Études des sciences et des technologies	0,000	0,000
Communication savante	0,001	0,001
Science ouverte	0,001	0,001
Intégrité de la recherche	0,000	0,001
Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger)	0,003	0,001

Scores machine (provisoires)

Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.

Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.

Tête enseignante Opus0,032

Tête enseignante GPT0,339

Écart entre enseignants0,307 · la distance entre les deux têtes enseignantes sur ce seul travail

Statut de validationscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découle

Classification

machine, non validée

Prédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule source (Gemma direct ou Codex distillé), pas un consensus.

Les modèles n’ont appliqué aucune catégorie : rien dans la taxonomie ne correspondait à ce travail.

Devis d'étudeObservationnel

Domainenon disponible

GenreEmpirique

Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».

En bref

Citations130

Publié2021

Routes d'admission1

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