Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
fundA Canadian funder is recorded on the work.
no affNo Canadian affiliation: this work is invisible to an affiliation-only frame.
No Canadian affiliation. An affiliation-only frame, the usual design, would never have seen this work. It is one of the works that make the case for inverting the frame.
VenueThe Lancet HIV · 2021
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldMedicine
TopicHIV/AIDS Research and Interventions
Canadian institutionsnot available
FundersEuropean and Developing Countries Clinical Trials PartnershipInstitute of Infection and ImmunityClinical and Translational Science Institute, University of California, Los AngelesDivision of Human Resource DevelopmentDivision of Mathematical SciencesFogarty International CenterNational Institute of Allergy and Infectious DiseasesResearch Management Centre, International Islamic University MalaysiaHorizon 2020National Drug and Alcohol Research CentreGuy's and St Thomas' NHS Foundation TrustFundação para a Ciência e a TecnologiaNational Health and Medical Research CouncilMedical Research CouncilSchool of Public Health and Family Medicine, University of Cape TownQatar National Research FundDirectorate for Biological SciencesNational Institutes of HealthDebre Tabor UniversityDebre Markos UniversityForeign, Commonwealth and Development OfficeRijksuniversiteit GroningenAteneo de Manila UniversityWuhan UniversityJoint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDSFrankfurt University of Applied SciencesI.M. Sechenov First Moscow State Medical UniversityKurdistan University Of Medical SciencesGeneralitat de CatalunyaUniverzita Karlova v PrazeUniversitat Autònoma de BarcelonaKwame Nkrumah University of Science and TechnologyUniversité de NantesUniversity of Health and Allied SciencesUniversitatea de Medicină şi Farmacie "Carol Davila" BucureştiAhvaz Jundishapur University of Medical SciencesUnited Arab Emirates UniversityCentre for Heart Rhythm Disorders, University of AdelaideWestern Sydney UniversityA.P. Møller og Hustru Chastine Mc-Kinney Møllers Fond til almene FormaalDepartment of Medicine, Ottawa HospitalUniversità Cattolica del Sacro CuoreRajshahi UniversityCalifornia Department of Fish and GameUniversity of Cape TownCenter for Drug Use and HIV ResearchHaramaya UniversityAbdul Wali Khan University MardanUniversità degli Studi di GenovaAlfaisal UniversityUniversity of TasmaniaUniversity of WaterlooUniwersytet ŁódzkiKing Abdulaziz UniversityDepartment of Health and Aged Care, Australian GovernmentCentres de Recerca de CatalunyaInstitució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis AvançatsSouth African Medical Research CouncilBundesministerium für GesundheitInyuvesi Yakwazulu-NataliEuropean CommissionAhmadu Bello UniversityElse Kröner-Fresenius-StiftungNIHR Biomedical Research Centre, Royal Marsden NHS Foundation Trust/Institute of Cancer ResearchUniversity of CalcuttaKing Saud UniversityNational Center for Advancing Translational SciencesBundesministerium für Bildung und ForschungPublic Health EnglandFonds National de la Recherche LuxembourgMinisterio de Ciencia, Innovación y UniversidadesFlinders UniversityDeutsche ForschungsgemeinschaftUniversity College LondonUniversity Grants CommissionImam Abdulrahman Bin Faisal UniversityUniversity of Central FloridaNational Institute for Health and Care ResearchBabol University of Medical SciencesWorld Health OrganizationMazandaran University of Medical SciencesGeorge Mason UniversityYork UniversityInvitaeHarvard UniversityManipal Academy of Higher EducationDeanship of Scientific Research, Prince Sattam bin Abdulaziz UniversityAustralian GovernmentUniversitat de BarcelonaImperial College LondonKing's College LondonTechnische Universität BerlinNational Institute of Mental HealthCase Western Reserve UniversityUniversity of Agriculture, FaisalabadInstitute for Health Metrics and EvaluationAlexander von Humboldt-StiftungChandigarh UniversityIran University of Medical SciencesJohns Hopkins UniversityWellcome TrustRussian Science FoundationUniversity of California, Los AngelesSultan Qaboos UniversityUniversity of PennsylvaniaXiamen UniversityStudent Research Committee, Tabriz University of Medical SciencesBahir Dar UniversityEIT HealthMcMaster UniversityNational Research University Higher School of EconomicsUniversity of JeddahOttawa Hospital Research InstituteSecretaría Nacional de Ciencia, Tecnología e InnovaciónJazan UniversityUniversity of Central PunjabHamad Medical CorporationDepartment of Anthropology, University of California, Los AngelesMiddlesex UniversityKasturba Medical College, ManipalNational Institute on Drug AbuseBirmingham City UniversityUniversity of New South WalesWashington University in St. LouisUniversity of PittsburghYale UniversityVirginia Marine Resources CommissionMekelle UniversityLa Trobe UniversityCurtin University of TechnologyBill and Melinda Gates Foundation
KeywordsMedicineHuman immunodeficiency virus (HIV)Environmental healthMen who have sex with menEpidemic controlGlobal healthCoronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)DemographyVirologyPublic healthDiseaseSyphilisPathology
Abstract
fetched live from OpenAlexBACKGROUND: The sustainable development goals (SDGs) aim to end HIV/AIDS as a public health threat by 2030. Understanding the current state of the HIV epidemic and its change over time is essential to this effort. This study assesses the current sex-specific HIV burden in 204 countries and territories and measures progress in the control of the epidemic. METHODS: To estimate age-specific and sex-specific trends in 48 of 204 countries, we extended the Estimation and Projection Package Age-Sex Model to also implement the spectrum paediatric model. We used this model in cases where age and sex specific HIV-seroprevalence surveys and antenatal care-clinic sentinel surveillance data were available. For the remaining 156 of 204 locations, we developed a cohort-incidence bias adjustment to derive incidence as a function of cause-of-death data from vital registration systems. The incidence was input to a custom Spectrum model. To assess progress, we measured the percentage change in incident cases and deaths between 2010 and 2019 (threshold >75% decline), the ratio of incident cases to number of people living with HIV (incidence-to-prevalence ratio threshold <0·03), and the ratio of incident cases to deaths (incidence-to-mortality ratio threshold <1·0). FINDINGS: In 2019, there were 36·8 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 35·1-38·9) people living with HIV worldwide. There were 0·84 males (95% UI 0·78-0·91) per female living with HIV in 2019, 0·99 male infections (0·91-1·10) for every female infection, and 1·02 male deaths (0·95-1·10) per female death. Global progress in incident cases and deaths between 2010 and 2019 was driven by sub-Saharan Africa (with a 28·52% decrease in incident cases, 95% UI 19·58-35·43, and a 39·66% decrease in deaths, 36·49-42·36). Elsewhere, the incidence remained stable or increased, whereas deaths generally decreased. In 2019, the global incidence-to-prevalence ratio was 0·05 (95% UI 0·05-0·06) and the global incidence-to-mortality ratio was 1·94 (1·76-2·12). No regions met suggested thresholds for progress. INTERPRETATION: Sub-Saharan Africa had both the highest HIV burden and the greatest progress between 1990 and 2019. The number of incident cases and deaths in males and females approached parity in 2019, although there remained more females with HIV than males with HIV. Globally, the HIV epidemic is far from the UNAIDS benchmarks on progress metrics. FUNDING: The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the National Institute of Mental Health of the US National Institutes of Health (NIH), and the National Institute on Aging of the NIH.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
metaresearch head score (Codex)0.001
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.000
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Not applicable · Consensus signal: Not applicable
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.264
Threshold uncertainty score0.239
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
Teacher spread0.307 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it
