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Enregistrement W321551509

Inflation and Monetary Tightening

2004· article· en· W321551509 sur OpenAlexaboutno aff
Evangelos Otto Simos

Notice bibliographique

RevueThe Journal of Business Forecasting Methods & Systems · 2004
Typearticle
Langueen
DomaineEconomics, Econometrics and Finance
ThématiqueGlobal Financial Crisis and Policies
Établissements canadiensnon disponible
Organismes subventionnairesnon disponible
Mots-clésQuarter (Canadian coin)EconomicsInflation (cosmology)Business cycleReal gross domestic productChinaWorld economyMacroeconomicsGeography
DOInon disponible

Résumé

récupéré en direct d'OpenAlex

I. Global Assessment and Outlook Led by the United States and China, the world economy is experiencing a broad based, strong and sustainable recovery as the laggards of the global business cycle - mainly Continental Europe - have finally been pulled out of their stagnation. Recent evidence from quarterly national accounts and forward-looking economic data suggests that growth has spread to all industrial countries and via international trade to the developing world. On a quarterly basis, the combined output of the member countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) - the 30 richest economies in the world - was estimated to have grown at an annual rate of 3.6 percent in the first quarter of 2004. Although the OECD-wide output rose at the same rate as in the fourth quarter of 2003, economic growth was broader based than last year. The United States economy, the leader of the current worldwide recovery, expanded at an annual growth rate of 4.4 percent in the first quarter of 2004, showing a slight improvement from the 4.1 percent growth rate recorded in the fourth quarter of 2003. Following a 6.8 percent surge in output growth in the last quarter of 2003, the Japanese economy experienced again a solid expansion in the first quarter of 2004, when output advanced by an annual rate of 5.6 percent. In the Euro Area, real output growth improved substantially to an annual rate of 2.4 percent in the first quarter from an anemic rate of 1.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2003. The three major Euromembers posted solid gains in economic growth in the first quarter of 2004 from the previous quarter. In Germany and Italy, real output advanced by an annual rate of 2.4 percent; in France, output expanded by an annual rate of 3.2 percent. In the United Kingdom, output rose by an annual rate of 2.4 percent in the first quarter of 2004, slowing down from 3.6 percent rate in the previous quarter. Recent economic activity indicators from emerging Asia, the second important driver of the current global recovery, have continued to be generally strong, particularly from the fast growing populous counties of China and India (see Chart 1). In the first quarter of 2004, Chinese real output expanded by 9.7 percent, compared to the same quarter a year ago. In India, industrial production jumped 9.7 percent in April, compared to April of 2003, led by a 10.7 percent surge in manufacturing output. After the sudden collapse of the Iron Curtain in 1989, international organizations introduced a new economic group to the world map, 'economies-in-transition,' consisting of the countries of Central and Eastern Europe. It was a reflection of the group's political and economic transformation to democracy and a market-based system. Fifteen years later, we eliminate the group 'economies-in-transition' from our analysis of the global economy - the same removal was also adopted by the International Monetary Fund last May - because of their rapid progress in the transformation process and changes in the world economic environment. The accession of eight countries from Central and Eastern Europe to the European Union (EU) in May 2004, the plan for Bulgaria and Romania to join in 2007, and the acceleration of legislative reforms in Turkey with the hope to follow, have generated a unique economic and regional group aimed at full membership to the Euro Area. For the newly-introduced 13-country group of Accession countries, the integration process with Europe requires each country to meet the Maastricht criteria, including membership of the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM2) for at least two years, before their full monetary integration with the adoption of the euro as their currency. The mission of adjusting to the requirements of EU membership is likely to be quite overwhelming and there seems it will probably be 5-6 years before most of them are ready to adopt the euro. The global strengthening in economic activity has changed the price environment from deflation to inflation. …

Récupéré en direct depuis OpenAlex et désinversé. Les résumés ne sont pas conservés dans cette base de données : les index inversés représentent 8,6 Go des 9,3 Go de texte de la base, et le serveur dispose de 13 Go libres.

Comment cette classification a été obtenuedéplier

Prédiction distillée sur la base complète

Imitation des enseignants

Ni prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Apprise à partir de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Gemma. Le mode candidate est l'union des têtes enseignantes seuillées; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont ni des étiquettes humaines ni des étiquettes directes de modèles de pointe.

score de la tête « metaresearch » (Codex)0,004
score de la tête « metaresearch » (Gemma)0,001
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aStatut de validation: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Catégories candidatesaucune
Catégories consensuellesaucune
DomaineSignal candidat: aucune · Signal consensuel: aucune
Devis d'étudeSignal candidat: Théorique ou conceptuel · Signal consensuel: aucune
GenreSignal candidat: Empirique · Signal consensuel: Empirique
Score de désaccord entre enseignants0,456
Score d'incertitude au seuil0,343

Scores Codex et Gemma par catégorie

CatégorieCodexGemma
Métarecherche0,0040,001
Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict)0,0000,000
Méta-épidémiologie (sens large)0,0000,000
Bibliométrie0,0000,000
Études des sciences et des technologies0,0000,000
Communication savante0,0000,000
Science ouverte0,0000,000
Intégrité de la recherche0,0000,000
Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger)0,0000,000

Scores machine (provisoires)

Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.

Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.

Tête enseignante Opus0,076
Tête enseignante GPT0,277
Écart entre enseignants0,200 · la distance entre les deux têtes enseignantes sur ce seul travail
Statut de validationscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découle

Classification

machine, non validée

Prédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule tête enseignante, pas un consensus.

Les modèles n’ont appliqué aucune catégorie : rien dans la taxonomie ne correspondait à ce travail.
Devis d'étudeThéorique ou conceptuel
Domainenon disponible
GenreEmpirique

Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».

En bref

Citations0
Publié2004
Routes d'admission1
Résumé présentoui

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