Bibliographic record
Abstract
I. Global Assessment and Outlook Led by the United States and China, the world economy is experiencing a broad based, strong and sustainable recovery as the laggards of the global business cycle - mainly Continental Europe - have finally been pulled out of their stagnation. Recent evidence from quarterly national accounts and forward-looking economic data suggests that growth has spread to all industrial countries and via international trade to the developing world. On a quarterly basis, the combined output of the member countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) - the 30 richest economies in the world - was estimated to have grown at an annual rate of 3.6 percent in the first quarter of 2004. Although the OECD-wide output rose at the same rate as in the fourth quarter of 2003, economic growth was broader based than last year. The United States economy, the leader of the current worldwide recovery, expanded at an annual growth rate of 4.4 percent in the first quarter of 2004, showing a slight improvement from the 4.1 percent growth rate recorded in the fourth quarter of 2003. Following a 6.8 percent surge in output growth in the last quarter of 2003, the Japanese economy experienced again a solid expansion in the first quarter of 2004, when output advanced by an annual rate of 5.6 percent. In the Euro Area, real output growth improved substantially to an annual rate of 2.4 percent in the first quarter from an anemic rate of 1.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2003. The three major Euromembers posted solid gains in economic growth in the first quarter of 2004 from the previous quarter. In Germany and Italy, real output advanced by an annual rate of 2.4 percent; in France, output expanded by an annual rate of 3.2 percent. In the United Kingdom, output rose by an annual rate of 2.4 percent in the first quarter of 2004, slowing down from 3.6 percent rate in the previous quarter. Recent economic activity indicators from emerging Asia, the second important driver of the current global recovery, have continued to be generally strong, particularly from the fast growing populous counties of China and India (see Chart 1). In the first quarter of 2004, Chinese real output expanded by 9.7 percent, compared to the same quarter a year ago. In India, industrial production jumped 9.7 percent in April, compared to April of 2003, led by a 10.7 percent surge in manufacturing output. After the sudden collapse of the Iron Curtain in 1989, international organizations introduced a new economic group to the world map, 'economies-in-transition,' consisting of the countries of Central and Eastern Europe. It was a reflection of the group's political and economic transformation to democracy and a market-based system. Fifteen years later, we eliminate the group 'economies-in-transition' from our analysis of the global economy - the same removal was also adopted by the International Monetary Fund last May - because of their rapid progress in the transformation process and changes in the world economic environment. The accession of eight countries from Central and Eastern Europe to the European Union (EU) in May 2004, the plan for Bulgaria and Romania to join in 2007, and the acceleration of legislative reforms in Turkey with the hope to follow, have generated a unique economic and regional group aimed at full membership to the Euro Area. For the newly-introduced 13-country group of Accession countries, the integration process with Europe requires each country to meet the Maastricht criteria, including membership of the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM2) for at least two years, before their full monetary integration with the adoption of the euro as their currency. The mission of adjusting to the requirements of EU membership is likely to be quite overwhelming and there seems it will probably be 5-6 years before most of them are ready to adopt the euro. The global strengthening in economic activity has changed the price environment from deflation to inflation. …
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.004 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".