Perceived Risks and Responses Related to Permafrost Thaw in three Arctic Focal Areas
Notice bibliographique
Résumé
“Nunataryuk” is a multi-disciplinary research consortium, examining permafrost thaw (PFT) in Arctic coastal areas from multiple perspectives. This paper presents outcomes from fieldwork conducted in Longyearbyen on Svalbard in Norway, Tiksi and Bykovskiy in Yakutiya, Russia, Disco Bay/North West Greenland and the Beaufort Sea Area in the Northwest Territories in Canada. It analyzes the entanglement between social and environmental change and addresses perceptions of the societal impacts of PFT, as well as (policy) responses to these impacts. The paper is based on data from qualitative interviews and a quantitative survey conducted in the three sites. In northern Yakutiya the growing effects of climate change are publicly discussed only in cases of major economic losses; e.g. when extreme weather events or PFT effect the seasonality of supply of necessary products and foods by winter roads. Other seemingly major environmental problems, such as the destruction of a graveyard due to severe coastal erosion, seem to be ignored. While the indigenous and mixed population of the neighboring villages is drawn to Tiksi, the residents of Tiksi move to Yakutsk and to the cities on the “Big Land”, leaving empty houses behind. In the Beaufort Sea area, including communities such as Aklavik, Inuvik and Tuktoyaktuk, Indigenous and other local organizations engage actively in the monitoring of and adaptation to the changes resulting from the effects of climate change and PFT. Employing a holistic understanding of socio-cultural vitality, which depends on an intact environment to provide sustenance for the local populations, concerns include not only physical and environmental effects but also the loss of intangible heritage such as Indigenous languages and cultures. For residents in Disco Bay and North West Greenland there is a concern for airports, roads and houses built on sediments. While most houses are built on bedrock there are in the northern most town many houses that are built on sediment. In this area people often experience that the floor starts slanting, or the door or window can’t close, and it also happens the window glass cracks due to changes in the ground changing the structure in the house. The local population is highly dependent on subsistence activities and the changing environment also entail a shift in catches. The local authorities are aware of the permafrost thaw; however, they are not seen as a major issue compared to expanding local water facilities and improving local waste system. For the non-indigenous community of Longyearbyen, Svalbard’s largest settlement, PFT is a major concern. While public perception of PFT and its impacts is high, it not always corresponds to the view of local engineers and scientists, who give a nuanced picture of the causes and effects of PFT. Perceived risks are mainly related to the built environment, while other aspects of society, such as health or culture, are not considered affected. Climate change and PFT are high up on the agenda of local and national policies, and adaptation is seen as a technical issue and entirely feasible, provided that sufficient resources are available.
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Comment cette classification a été obtenuedéplier
Prédiction machine sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Le volet Gemma est une étiquette directe du modèle pour chaque travail de la base, lue sur la notice réduite au titre. Le volet Codex est un classifieur appris des 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et calibré sur les taux pondérés de l'échantillon; les champs sans appui suffisant ne portent aucun appel Codex. Le mode candidate est l'union des deux volets; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont pas des étiquettes humaines.
Scores du classifieur distillé par catégorie (deux têtes)
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,001 | 0,002 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,001 | 0,001 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,005 | 0,002 |
| Communication savante | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Science ouverte | 0,001 | 0,002 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,001 | 0,001 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,001 | 0,000 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule source (Gemma direct ou Codex distillé), pas un consensus.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».