Perceived Risks and Responses Related to Permafrost Thaw in three Arctic Focal Areas
Bibliographic record
Abstract
“Nunataryuk” is a multi-disciplinary research consortium, examining permafrost thaw (PFT) in Arctic coastal areas from multiple perspectives. This paper presents outcomes from fieldwork conducted in Longyearbyen on Svalbard in Norway, Tiksi and Bykovskiy in Yakutiya, Russia, Disco Bay/North West Greenland and the Beaufort Sea Area in the Northwest Territories in Canada. It analyzes the entanglement between social and environmental change and addresses perceptions of the societal impacts of PFT, as well as (policy) responses to these impacts. The paper is based on data from qualitative interviews and a quantitative survey conducted in the three sites. In northern Yakutiya the growing effects of climate change are publicly discussed only in cases of major economic losses; e.g. when extreme weather events or PFT effect the seasonality of supply of necessary products and foods by winter roads. Other seemingly major environmental problems, such as the destruction of a graveyard due to severe coastal erosion, seem to be ignored. While the indigenous and mixed population of the neighboring villages is drawn to Tiksi, the residents of Tiksi move to Yakutsk and to the cities on the “Big Land”, leaving empty houses behind. In the Beaufort Sea area, including communities such as Aklavik, Inuvik and Tuktoyaktuk, Indigenous and other local organizations engage actively in the monitoring of and adaptation to the changes resulting from the effects of climate change and PFT. Employing a holistic understanding of socio-cultural vitality, which depends on an intact environment to provide sustenance for the local populations, concerns include not only physical and environmental effects but also the loss of intangible heritage such as Indigenous languages and cultures. For residents in Disco Bay and North West Greenland there is a concern for airports, roads and houses built on sediments. While most houses are built on bedrock there are in the northern most town many houses that are built on sediment. In this area people often experience that the floor starts slanting, or the door or window can’t close, and it also happens the window glass cracks due to changes in the ground changing the structure in the house. The local population is highly dependent on subsistence activities and the changing environment also entail a shift in catches. The local authorities are aware of the permafrost thaw; however, they are not seen as a major issue compared to expanding local water facilities and improving local waste system. For the non-indigenous community of Longyearbyen, Svalbard’s largest settlement, PFT is a major concern. While public perception of PFT and its impacts is high, it not always corresponds to the view of local engineers and scientists, who give a nuanced picture of the causes and effects of PFT. Perceived risks are mainly related to the built environment, while other aspects of society, such as health or culture, are not considered affected. Climate change and PFT are high up on the agenda of local and national policies, and adaptation is seen as a technical issue and entirely feasible, provided that sufficient resources are available.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.005 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".