Hothouse earth: An inhabitant's guide, By BillMcGuire, Icon Books, London, 2022, 192 pp., paperback, $19.95 (ISBN 978‐1785789205)
Notice bibliographique
Résumé
Bill McGuire's book has a foreword, ten chapters, an afterword, three sparse pages of references, and an index. Unfortunately, the book has no maps, which could have been helpful in many places. Its premise is “there is now no chance of dodging a grim future of perilous, all-pervasive, climate breakdown” (p. xiv). “In order to be as prepared as we can be, we need to plan for the worst even as we hope for the best” (p. xvii). However, McGuire views this as difficult because there are countries, such as Canada, which continue developing fossil fuel infrastructure. McGuire discusses a range of issues including: how industrialization gave rise to elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) levels; natural climate changes (including the role of CO2 in those changes); the warming of polar regions; extreme heatwaves and other extreme weather events; sea level rise; elements of uncertainty worsening climate change impacts; how climate change will lead to conflict; climate change's impacts upon human health; and the worst-case scenario in a world of runaway climate change. McGuire's book has its strengths. It gives a readily understandable explanation of how the loss of Arctic Sea ice leads to a meandering jet stream producing extreme cold weather events. McGuire also addresses the oft-articulated view that some places may benefit from climate change due to growing areas moving poleward, pointing out that actually, no one benefits from climate change. “As far as agriculture is concerned,” wrote McGuire, “there are no winners in the global heating game” (p. 80). Discussing geoengineering, defined as “technological schemes involving intentional wholescale interference with the climate” (p. 151), McGuire declares them a distraction only addressing climate change's symptoms rather than its cause, and therefore a distraction from reducing CO2 emissions as fast as possible. McGuire is similarly unenthusiastic about carbon capture and storage—viewing it as something hijacked by fossil fuel industries to “squeeze out the last dribbles from senescent oil fields” (p. 150). McGuire addresses inaction to address climate change, pointing out that “emissions continue to surge, and serious global action to turn the tide is still nowhere to be seen” (p. 151). McGuire also points out how governments provide $11 million of subsidies to the fossil fuel industry every minute. Ultimately, McGuire blames capitalism for the climate crisis, with its emphasis on competition (instead of cooperation) and profit (instead of the greater good). To McGuire, “capitalism is exactly the wrong economic system to have in place during a time of global crisis” (p. 161). McGuire's book is not, however, without weaknesses. McGuire discusses the asymmetries in CO2 emissions between rich and poor; by 2030 the world's richest 1% are predicted to have annual per capita CO2 emissions of 70 tonnes, while the world's poorest 50% (who will bear the brunt of climate change) are predicted to have annual per capita emissions of only “one measly tonne” (p. 160). However, the book lacks discussion of climate injustice, how those countries who have done the least to cause climate change are also those most vulnerable to its effects (Holden, 2018; Shue, 2014; Vanderheiden, 2008). The lack of a comprehensive bibliography providing sources for virtually all the book's pithy statements is disappointing. There are also other books, focusing on climate change's specific aspects, which provide more robust discussions. For climate change's severity there is Wallace-Wells (2019); for drought there is De Buys (2011); for the oceans there is Rohling (2017); climate change and conflict are better covered by Parenti (2011); and for the incompatibility of capitalism with climate change there is Klein (2014) or even Pope Francis's 2015 Encyclical Laudato Si. Nevertheless, this reviewer recommends this book. As someone who teaches environmental science in Alberta, where many view climate change as a socialist plot to undermine the oil industry (and where environmentalists are described with opprobrium), McGuire provides a succinct warning of humanity's perils in the coming dystopian future.
Récupéré en direct depuis OpenAlex et désinversé. Les résumés ne sont pas conservés dans cette base de données : les index inversés représentent 8,6 Go des 9,3 Go de texte de la base, et le serveur dispose de 13 Go libres.
Comment cette classification a été obtenuedéplier
Prédiction machine sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Le volet Gemma est une étiquette directe du modèle pour chaque travail de la base, lue sur la notice réduite au titre. Le volet Codex est un classifieur appris des 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et calibré sur les taux pondérés de l'échantillon; les champs sans appui suffisant ne portent aucun appel Codex. Le mode candidate est l'union des deux volets; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont pas des étiquettes humaines.
Scores du classifieur distillé par catégorie (deux têtes)
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,000 | 0,001 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,002 | 0,001 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,001 | 0,001 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,002 | 0,003 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,002 | 0,001 |
| Communication savante | 0,006 | 0,006 |
| Science ouverte | 0,001 | 0,003 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,002 | 0,003 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,228 | 0,197 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule source (Gemma direct ou Codex distillé), pas un consensus.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».