Oil embargo as a diplomacy tool: possibilities and limitations on the example of the Israeli crisis
Notice bibliographique
Résumé
In the following article the possibility of application of the oil embargo tool as a mean of impacting the crisis settlement is considered. The chosen case is the Palestine-Israel confl ict in its active phase since October 2023. The Yom Kippur war of 1973 and the invasion of Israel by Hamas of 7 October 2023 are compared, distinguishing similarities and diff erences. The common features are the start of the operation exactly 50 years after the historical precedent, collective character of the attack, its suddenness, and also a huge potential of Arab countries in the world oil market. There are some distinctive features revealed by the author, though. The Arab states are to a bigger extent aimed at conducting negotiations and resolving the confl ict by diplomatic means than in 1973, the structure of the world oil market is different compared to how it was 50 years ago, giving the OPEC members less possibilities for action, as well as fragmentation among the cartel members themselves, decreasing the opportunity agree on the embargo. The author remarks the intention of several Arab countries, in particular, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, to mediate the confl ict, as well as their aspiration to preserve the trend of restoring relations with Israel. The article highlights the position of researchers about the importance of network diplomacy during confl ict settlement. The shares of countries non entering the OPEC, namely, the United States of America, Russia, Canada are investigated. The conclusion about their important role as oil producers, what limits the possibility of oil embargo,is done. The question of lack of political unity among the OPEC members, as, for example, Saudi Arabia and Iran, Iran and Iraq, is unveiled. The factor of political instability in Libya is emphasised. The author comes to the conclusion about necessity to possess a significant share in the oil market, as well as the political consensus for an effective usage of the oil embargo tool. The relevance of the article is based on an increasing role of the Palestine-Israeli confl ict in contemporary international relations, but also the necessity to study the possibility of using the oil embargo in the current conditions, being based on the successful experience of 1970s. The chosen methods are historical and comparative analysis.
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Prédiction distillée sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Apprise à partir de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Gemma. Le mode candidate est l'union des têtes enseignantes seuillées; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont ni des étiquettes humaines ni des étiquettes directes de modèles de pointe.
Scores Codex et Gemma par catégorie
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Communication savante | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Science ouverte | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule tête enseignante, pas un consensus.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».