Oil embargo as a diplomacy tool: possibilities and limitations on the example of the Israeli crisis
Bibliographic record
Abstract
In the following article the possibility of application of the oil embargo tool as a mean of impacting the crisis settlement is considered. The chosen case is the Palestine-Israel confl ict in its active phase since October 2023. The Yom Kippur war of 1973 and the invasion of Israel by Hamas of 7 October 2023 are compared, distinguishing similarities and diff erences. The common features are the start of the operation exactly 50 years after the historical precedent, collective character of the attack, its suddenness, and also a huge potential of Arab countries in the world oil market. There are some distinctive features revealed by the author, though. The Arab states are to a bigger extent aimed at conducting negotiations and resolving the confl ict by diplomatic means than in 1973, the structure of the world oil market is different compared to how it was 50 years ago, giving the OPEC members less possibilities for action, as well as fragmentation among the cartel members themselves, decreasing the opportunity agree on the embargo. The author remarks the intention of several Arab countries, in particular, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, to mediate the confl ict, as well as their aspiration to preserve the trend of restoring relations with Israel. The article highlights the position of researchers about the importance of network diplomacy during confl ict settlement. The shares of countries non entering the OPEC, namely, the United States of America, Russia, Canada are investigated. The conclusion about their important role as oil producers, what limits the possibility of oil embargo,is done. The question of lack of political unity among the OPEC members, as, for example, Saudi Arabia and Iran, Iran and Iraq, is unveiled. The factor of political instability in Libya is emphasised. The author comes to the conclusion about necessity to possess a significant share in the oil market, as well as the political consensus for an effective usage of the oil embargo tool. The relevance of the article is based on an increasing role of the Palestine-Israeli confl ict in contemporary international relations, but also the necessity to study the possibility of using the oil embargo in the current conditions, being based on the successful experience of 1970s. The chosen methods are historical and comparative analysis.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.004 | 0.004 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.008 | 0.005 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Research integrity | 0.004 | 0.003 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.007 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".