Projection of the number of new lymphoma cases in the world
Notice bibliographique
Résumé
In order to compare the estimated number of lymphoma cases including both Hodgkin and non-Hodgkin from 2022 to 2050 between Japan and other countries, we extracted information on reported projection of the number of new cancer cases from ‘Global Cancer Observatory’ website [1]. In this site, the predicted future cancer burden worldwide from the estimates in 2022 up until 2050 were reported. The estimates were based on the assumption that the incidence rate by sex and age group for each country in the world as of 2022, as estimated by the GLOBOCAN project, will remain constant until 2050. This means that the increase or decrease in the number of cancer cases will depend only on the corresponding increase or decrease in the size of the projected population. We calculated the percentage increase in the number of cases by 2050 prediction relative to the number of cases in 2022 for each country. Notice that results for China and the USA (graph on the far left and second to the left) are to be interpreted with reference to the right Y-axis, by contrast with results for all other countries, given with reference to the left Y-axis of each graph. Figure 1 shows the trend in the estimated numbers of lymphoma cases for males. Estimated number of new Hodgkin and non-Hodgkin lymphoma cases from 2022 to 2050 (male). In 2022, the highest number of new cases were found in the USA (48 249), China (48 142), and Japan (20 945). Other countries above 10 000 were the three European countries (Germany: 12 112, France: 10 930 and the UK: 10 395). In 2050, the countries with the largest number of cases are expected to be mostly similar to those in 2022. Estimations for China (70 399) and the USA (70 017) are followed by Japan (21 358), Germany (14 163), UK (14 072) and France (13 768). Brazil (12 186) and Egypt (11 294) are expected to reach similar number of new cases to those in European countries. Between 2022 and 2050, the estimated percentage changes are expected to increase for all countries; Uganda (+122.2%) is expected to experience over 100% points. Above a 50% increase are Egypt (+94.7%), Colombia (+79.2%), New Zealand (+64.3%), Australia (+61.0%), Brazil (+59.0%) and Canada (+51.9%). In the lowest end, Japan showed the most limited increase (+2.0%), followed in increasing order by the European countries (Germany: +16.9%, France: +26.0% and the UK: +35.4%). Figure 2 shows the trend in the estimated numbers of lymphoma cases for females. Estimated number of new Hodgkin and non-Hodgkin lymphoma cases from 2022 to 2050 (female). In all countries, the number of new cases for females was lower than that for males. Similar to males, the highest number of new cases in 2022 were found in the USA (38 243), China (37 050), and Japan (17 081). Differently to males, other countries in the selection were <10 000, the European countries showing a high trend of 9287 new cases for Germany, 7994 for France and 7922 for the UK. In 2050, the countries with highest number of cases are expected to be mostly similar to those in 2022; Estimations for China (54 672) and the USA (52 425) are expected to be followed by Japan (18 900), Germany (11 334), France (10 341), UK (10 340), and Brazil (10 065). The estimated percentage changes are expected to increase for all countries, with the highest increase in Africa: Uganda (+135.3%) and Egypt (+102.9%), both above 100%, followed by South America (Colombia: +79.3% and Brazil: +65.1%). In the lowest end, the estimated increase in number of cases is Japan (+10.6%) followed in increasing order by European countries (Germany: +22.0%, France: +29.4%, and the UK: +30.5%). While comparing the increase of number of new cases between 2022 and 2050, Japan is the only country expected to reach a plateau (in 2035 for both men and women), while all other countries are expected to increase. Note: Data were extracted from the Global Cancer Observatory: Cancer Tomorrow [1]. The figures are prepared by the authors of this article, and the responsibility for their presentation and interpretation lies with the authors of this article. None declared. None.
Récupéré en direct depuis OpenAlex et désinversé. Les résumés ne sont pas conservés dans cette base de données : les index inversés représentent 8,6 Go des 9,3 Go de texte de la base, et le serveur dispose de 13 Go libres.
Comment cette classification a été obtenuedéplier
Prédiction distillée sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Apprise à partir de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Gemma. Le mode candidate est l'union des têtes enseignantes seuillées; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont ni des étiquettes humaines ni des étiquettes directes de modèles de pointe.
Scores Codex et Gemma par catégorie
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,002 | 0,001 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Communication savante | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Science ouverte | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule tête enseignante, pas un consensus.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».