Projection of the number of new lymphoma cases in the world
Bibliographic record
Abstract
In order to compare the estimated number of lymphoma cases including both Hodgkin and non-Hodgkin from 2022 to 2050 between Japan and other countries, we extracted information on reported projection of the number of new cancer cases from ‘Global Cancer Observatory’ website [1]. In this site, the predicted future cancer burden worldwide from the estimates in 2022 up until 2050 were reported. The estimates were based on the assumption that the incidence rate by sex and age group for each country in the world as of 2022, as estimated by the GLOBOCAN project, will remain constant until 2050. This means that the increase or decrease in the number of cancer cases will depend only on the corresponding increase or decrease in the size of the projected population. We calculated the percentage increase in the number of cases by 2050 prediction relative to the number of cases in 2022 for each country. Notice that results for China and the USA (graph on the far left and second to the left) are to be interpreted with reference to the right Y-axis, by contrast with results for all other countries, given with reference to the left Y-axis of each graph. Figure 1 shows the trend in the estimated numbers of lymphoma cases for males. Estimated number of new Hodgkin and non-Hodgkin lymphoma cases from 2022 to 2050 (male). In 2022, the highest number of new cases were found in the USA (48 249), China (48 142), and Japan (20 945). Other countries above 10 000 were the three European countries (Germany: 12 112, France: 10 930 and the UK: 10 395). In 2050, the countries with the largest number of cases are expected to be mostly similar to those in 2022. Estimations for China (70 399) and the USA (70 017) are followed by Japan (21 358), Germany (14 163), UK (14 072) and France (13 768). Brazil (12 186) and Egypt (11 294) are expected to reach similar number of new cases to those in European countries. Between 2022 and 2050, the estimated percentage changes are expected to increase for all countries; Uganda (+122.2%) is expected to experience over 100% points. Above a 50% increase are Egypt (+94.7%), Colombia (+79.2%), New Zealand (+64.3%), Australia (+61.0%), Brazil (+59.0%) and Canada (+51.9%). In the lowest end, Japan showed the most limited increase (+2.0%), followed in increasing order by the European countries (Germany: +16.9%, France: +26.0% and the UK: +35.4%). Figure 2 shows the trend in the estimated numbers of lymphoma cases for females. Estimated number of new Hodgkin and non-Hodgkin lymphoma cases from 2022 to 2050 (female). In all countries, the number of new cases for females was lower than that for males. Similar to males, the highest number of new cases in 2022 were found in the USA (38 243), China (37 050), and Japan (17 081). Differently to males, other countries in the selection were <10 000, the European countries showing a high trend of 9287 new cases for Germany, 7994 for France and 7922 for the UK. In 2050, the countries with highest number of cases are expected to be mostly similar to those in 2022; Estimations for China (54 672) and the USA (52 425) are expected to be followed by Japan (18 900), Germany (11 334), France (10 341), UK (10 340), and Brazil (10 065). The estimated percentage changes are expected to increase for all countries, with the highest increase in Africa: Uganda (+135.3%) and Egypt (+102.9%), both above 100%, followed by South America (Colombia: +79.3% and Brazil: +65.1%). In the lowest end, the estimated increase in number of cases is Japan (+10.6%) followed in increasing order by European countries (Germany: +22.0%, France: +29.4%, and the UK: +30.5%). While comparing the increase of number of new cases between 2022 and 2050, Japan is the only country expected to reach a plateau (in 2035 for both men and women), while all other countries are expected to increase. Note: Data were extracted from the Global Cancer Observatory: Cancer Tomorrow [1]. The figures are prepared by the authors of this article, and the responsibility for their presentation and interpretation lies with the authors of this article. None declared. None.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".