Using Machine Learning to Predict Cognitive Decline in Older Adults From the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey: Model Development and Validation Study
Notice bibliographique
Résumé
Background: Cognitive impairment, indicative of Alzheimer disease and other forms of dementia, significantly deteriorates the quality of life of older adult populations and imposes considerable burdens on families and health care systems worldwide. The early identification of individuals at risk for cognitive impairment through a convenient and rapid method is crucial for the timely implementation of interventions. Objective: The objective of this study was to explore the application of machine learning (ML) to integrate blood biomarkers, life behaviors, and disease history to predict the decline in cognitive function. Methods: This approach uses data from the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey. A total of 2688 participants aged 65 years or older from the 2008-2009, 2011-2012, and 2014 Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey waves were included, with cognitive impairment defined as a Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) score below 18. The dataset was divided into a training set (n=1331), an internal test set (n=333), and a prospective validation set (n=1024). Participants with a baseline MMSE score of less than 18 were excluded from the cohort to ensure a more accurate assessment of cognitive function. We developed ML models that integrate demographic information, health behaviors, disease history, and blood biomarkers to predict cognitive function at the 3-year follow-up point, specifically identifying individuals who are at risk of experiencing significant declines in cognitive function by that time. Specifically, the models aimed to identify individuals who would experience a significant decline in their MMSE scores (less than 18) by the end of the follow-up period. The performance of these models was evaluated using metrics including accuracy, sensitivity, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Results: All ML models outperformed the MMSE alone. The balanced random forest achieved the highest accuracy (88.5% in the internal test set and 88.7% in the prospective validation set), albeit with a lower sensitivity, while logistic regression recorded the highest sensitivity. SHAP (Shapley Additive Explanations) analysis identified instrumental activities of daily living, age, and baseline MMSE scores as the most influential predictors for cognitive impairment. Conclusions: The incorporation of blood biomarkers, along with demographic, life behavior, and disease history into ML models offers a convenient, rapid, and accurate approach for the early identification of older adult individuals at risk of cognitive impairment. This method presents a valuable tool for health care professionals to facilitate timely interventions and underscores the importance of integrating diverse data types in predictive health models.
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Comment cette classification a été obtenuedéplier
Prédiction distillée sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Apprise à partir de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Gemma. Le mode candidate est l'union des têtes enseignantes seuillées; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont ni des étiquettes humaines ni des étiquettes directes de modèles de pointe.
Scores Codex et Gemma par catégorie
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,002 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,000 | 0,001 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Communication savante | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Science ouverte | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule tête enseignante, pas un consensus.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».