Effects of Perceived Scarcity on Mental Health, Time and Risk Preferences, and Decision-Making During and After COVID-19 Lockdown: Quasi-Natural Experimental Study
Notice bibliographique
Résumé
Background: The COVID-19 lockdowns led to significant resource constraints, potentially impacting mental health and decision-making behaviors. Understanding the psychological and behavioral consequences could inform designing interventions to mitigate the negative impacts of episodic scarcity during crises like pandemics. Objective: To investigate the effects of perceived scarcity on mental health (stress and fear), cognitive functioning, time and risk preferences (present bias and risk aversion), and trade-offs between groceries, health, and temptation goods during and after the COVID-19 lockdown in Shanghai. Methods: A quasi-natural experiment was conducted in Shanghai during and after the COVID-19 lockdown. Web-based surveys were administered in May 2022 (during lockdown) and September 2022 (post-lockdown). Propensity score matching was used to balance demographic factors between the groups (During: n=332; After: n=339). Data were analyzed using regression analyses, controlling for potential confounders and applying propensity score matching weights. Results: Perceived scarcity was significantly higher during the lockdown (mean 7.97 (SD 2.1)) than after (mean 4.35 (SD 2.27); P<.001). Higher perceived scarcity was associated with increased stress levels both during (standardized β coefficient=.62, P<.001) and after the lockdown (standardized β coefficient=.65, P<.001). Perceived scarcity also predicted greater fear of COVID-19 after lockdown (standardized β coefficient =.38, P<.001), though not during lockdown. Cognitive functioning remained stable, possibly due to a ceiling effect from high education levels. Monetary risk aversion increased under prolonged scarcity during lockdown (scarcity×during-lockdown interaction standardized β coefficient=4.68, P<.001). Present bias (tendency to choose immediate rewards) showed no significant overall change between groups, in line with recent evidence of stable time preferences during the pandemic. During lockdown, participants allocated more budget to groceries (standardized β coefficient=.67, P=.01) and less to health items (standardized β coefficient=-.61, P=.02), compared to post-lockdown, reflecting shifted priorities on pressing needs under scarcity. Subgroup analyses indicated stratified heterogeneity. Women increased their grocery spending (standardized β coefficient =.16, P=.04) and reduced spending on health items (standardized β coefficient = -.15, P=.05). Lower education participants exhibited more risk-averse attitudes (standardized β coefficient =.80, P=.01) under scarcity, whereas age and income did not significantly moderate these effects. Conclusions: The study highlights that perceived scarcity during lockdown intensified stress and altered decision-making behaviors, including increased monetary risk aversion and shifts in spending priorities. Theoretically, this study advances the understanding of perceived scarcity by exploring its domain-specific effects on mental health and decision-making. Practically, these findings emphasize the need for public health strategies that mitigate the psychological impact of scarcity during crises, ensure access to essential goods, and support adaptive decision-making behaviors.
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Comment cette classification a été obtenuedéplier
Prédiction machine sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Le volet Gemma est une étiquette directe du modèle pour chaque travail de la base, lue sur la notice réduite au titre. Le volet Codex est un classifieur appris des 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et calibré sur les taux pondérés de l'échantillon; les champs sans appui suffisant ne portent aucun appel Codex. Le mode candidate est l'union des deux volets; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont pas des étiquettes humaines.
Scores du classifieur distillé par catégorie (deux têtes)
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,002 | 0,003 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,001 | 0,001 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,001 | 0,001 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,002 | 0,002 |
| Communication savante | 0,001 | 0,001 |
| Science ouverte | 0,001 | 0,001 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,001 | 0,001 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,005 | 0,000 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule source (Gemma direct ou Codex distillé), pas un consensus.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».