Long-Term Durability of Active Surveillance of Small, Low-Risk Papillary Thyroid Cancer
Notice bibliographique
Résumé
Importance: In managing early-stage cancers, active surveillance (AS) may be preferentially favored by older individuals. In counseling patients, it is important to understand the durability of AS in the context of age. Objective: To evaluate the durability of AS in patients with small, low-risk papillary thyroid cancer (PTC) according to age at the time of choosing AS. Design, Setting, and Participants: This single-center, prospective, long-term follow-up cohort study was conducted at a tertiary care hospital in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. Adult patients with small, localized, low-risk PTC less than 2 cm in maximal diameter were enrolled between May 2016 and February 2021. The clinical outcome data were analyzed up to the time point of May 25, 2025, and final data analysis was performed in June 2025. Exposure: All patients were offered the choice of AS or thyroid surgery. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was the overall rate of AS crossover to definitive treatment (treatment completed or recommended by an investigator) and the indications. Cumulative crossover incidence function curves were examined according to age, with death from other causes as the competing risk. Results: A total of 200 patients (155 patients under AS and 45 who had immediate surgery) were followed up for a median (IQR) duration of 71 (59-84) months. Overall mean (SD) age was 52.0 (14.9) years, and 153 patients (76.5%) were female. There were no observed thyroid cancer-related deaths or any distant metastatic disease. The overall crossover rate from AS was 23.9% (37/155; 32 completed treatment, 3 declined surgery for disease progression, and 2 awaiting treatment). Crossover reasons included disease progression (56.8% [21/37]), patient preference (40.5% [15/37]), and ultrasound imaging limitations precluding accurate tumor measurement under active surveillance (tumor border not clearly distinguishable from heterogeneous echotexture of the thyroid parenchyma in a patient with Hashimoto thyroiditis; 2.6% [1/37]). The 5-year age-stratified cumulative overall crossover incidence rates were 41.5% (95% CI, 25.6%-56.8%) in patients younger than 45 years, 20.9% (95% CI, 12.3%-31.1%) in those aged 45 to 64 years, and 5.1% (95% CI, 0.9%-15.2%) in those aged 65 years and older (P < .001). Conclusion and Relevance: This single-center Canadian cohort study found that AS is a durable long-term management strategy for small, low -risk PTC, particularly in older individuals. Older individuals may be less likely to cross over to surgery after choosing AS.
Récupéré en direct depuis OpenAlex et désinversé. Les résumés ne sont pas conservés dans cette base de données : les index inversés représentent 8,6 Go des 9,3 Go de texte de la base, et le serveur dispose de 13 Go libres.
Comment cette classification a été obtenuedéplier
Prédiction machine sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Le volet Gemma est une étiquette directe du modèle pour chaque travail de la base, lue sur la notice réduite au titre. Le volet Codex est un classifieur appris des 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et calibré sur les taux pondérés de l'échantillon; les champs sans appui suffisant ne portent aucun appel Codex. Le mode candidate est l'union des deux volets; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont pas des étiquettes humaines.
Scores du classifieur distillé par catégorie (deux têtes)
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,002 | 0,006 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,000 | 0,001 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Communication savante | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Science ouverte | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,001 | 0,000 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule source (Gemma direct ou Codex distillé), pas un consensus.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».