Macroeconomic Situation and Outlook

Taiwan’s economic growth has been sliding in recent years, hitting a record low of –2.1 percent in 2001. In 2002, the growth rate bounced back to 3.54 percent following the upward trend of the world economy. The recovery was led by the strong export sector, which expanded by 9.7 percent, while imports only increased by 6.2 percent. Investment shrank by 2.0 percent, and private consumption was weak, growing only at 1.91 percent. As a quarterly decomposition, the first quarter of 2002 continued the slumping trend from 2001, growing by only 1.2 percent, but the economy picked up strength in the remaining three quarters to achieve 4.0, 4.8, and 4.2 percent growth rates, respectively. The unemployment rate jumped from 3.0 percent in 2000 to 4.6 percent in 2001 and climbed higher still in 2002 to 5.2 percent. Prices remain stable as can be seen from the 0.2 percent contraction in the 2002 Consumer Price Index. The U.S. and world economies are expected to grow moderately in 2003, which will in turn nurse a moderate export expansion in Taiwan. Big investment projects in the telecommunication industry and a high-speed railway project will continue, but private investment is expected to stall due to the weak financial sector and an excess supply of IT products. Taiwan’s economy is projected to grow moderately at 3.4 percent in 2003. Private consumption will resume a normal growth path of 2.9 percent in 2003 to sustain the economic growth. Exports are expected to increase at 6.3 percent in 2003 but imports will grow faster at 7.17 percent. The outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) has hurt Chinese Taipei’s economy and increased uncertainty for future economic prospects. If the government fails to contain the spread of SARS in the first half of the year, the downside risk of economic growth in 2003 could range from 0.5 percent to 1.5 percent. The Council for Economic Planning and Development estimated the outbreak of SARS is likely to slow GDP to 1.75 percent his year from the original 3.5 percent forecast. Every percent drop in GDP will generate one percentage point rise in unemployment. Therefore, the government of Chinese Taipei needs to speed up its promotion of the NT$70-billion public work projects and expansionary fiscal policy.

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