Macroeconomic Situation and Outlook
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Taiwan’s economic growth has been sliding in recent years, hitting a record low of –2.1 percent in 2001. In 2002, the growth rate bounced back to 3.54 percent following the upward trend of the world economy. The recovery was led by the strong export sector, which expanded by 9.7 percent, while imports only increased by 6.2 percent. Investment shrank by 2.0 percent, and private consumption was weak, growing only at 1.91 percent. As a quarterly decomposition, the first quarter of 2002 continued the slumping trend from 2001, growing by only 1.2 percent, but the economy picked up strength in the remaining three quarters to achieve 4.0, 4.8, and 4.2 percent growth rates, respectively. The unemployment rate jumped from 3.0 percent in 2000 to 4.6 percent in 2001 and climbed higher still in 2002 to 5.2 percent. Prices remain stable as can be seen from the 0.2 percent contraction in the 2002 Consumer Price Index. The U.S. and world economies are expected to grow moderately in 2003, which will in turn nurse a moderate export expansion in Taiwan. Big investment projects in the telecommunication industry and a high-speed railway project will continue, but private investment is expected to stall due to the weak financial sector and an excess supply of IT products. Taiwan’s economy is projected to grow moderately at 3.4 percent in 2003. Private consumption will resume a normal growth path of 2.9 percent in 2003 to sustain the economic growth. Exports are expected to increase at 6.3 percent in 2003 but imports will grow faster at 7.17 percent. The outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) has hurt Chinese Taipei’s economy and increased uncertainty for future economic prospects. If the government fails to contain the spread of SARS in the first half of the year, the downside risk of economic growth in 2003 could range from 0.5 percent to 1.5 percent. The Council for Economic Planning and Development estimated the outbreak of SARS is likely to slow GDP to 1.75 percent his year from the original 3.5 percent forecast. Every percent drop in GDP will generate one percentage point rise in unemployment. Therefore, the government of Chinese Taipei needs to speed up its promotion of the NT$70-billion public work projects and expansionary fiscal policy.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.026 | 0.014 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".