Notice bibliographique
Résumé
I. GLOBAL ASSESSMENT AND OUTLOOKDespite euphoria about the accelerated global growth in the second half of last year based on quarterly GDP statistics published with one to two quarters lag, higher frequency monthly indicators for the end of 2013 and the first two months of 2014 continue to come below expectations. Blame it on the has been the justification of politicians, media, and business leaders concerned with declining sales. There is evidence that the world economy entered a at the end of 2013. There were signs of weakness in Russia and Brazil as well as an apparent change in the underlying growth trend in China from 9% to about 6.5%. New tensions surfaced in financial markets from the emerging economies of Argentina, Turkey, and South Africa. In addition, U.S. economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2013 was revised downward from 3.2% to 2.4% resulting in an annual growth rate of 1.9% for the whole 2013, not a solid accelerating growth path when compared to 2.8% growth in 2012.Recent data tracking investment activity around the globe paints a less optimistic picture for growth in 2014. According to the findings of the World Economic Survey (WES) conducted in the first quarter of 2014, executives assessed current worldwide capital expenditures (capex)- the engine to future economic growth and jobs-to be below satisfactory levels and about the same as in the first quarter of 2013. In the Asian 15-country group, which includes China, India, and Korea, business executives evaluated current capital expenditures to be unsatisfactory and at similar levels as a year ago; they expect a slight improvement in investment in the third quarter of 2014. Given the lagging effects of investment on growth and jobs, growth in Asia is expected to decelerate in 2014. The capital expenditures outlook in Latin America, Africa, and Eastern Europe is similar to the outlook in the Asian countries. The survey points to an optimistic investment outlook in North America and the Near East countries.In sum, there are strong indications that the global economy has entered a soft patch at the end of 2013, probably in December, led by inventory corrections, neutrality of fiscal policy, a slowdown in money expansion, anemic consumer demand, and extreme weather (polar vortex). Policies in 2014 with market disruptive components, like Obama Care in the United States and austerity in Europe, and geopolitical events like the Ukraine crisis may push a fragile global economy into another recession in the summer of this year. Our forecast reflects the current soft patch and assigns a 35% probability for a global downswing in the summer.II. SHORT-TERM INDICATORS AND FORECASTSThe baseline forecast incorporates major findings of the World Economic Survey conducted by the German Ifo Institute and the Paris-based International Chamber of Commerce in the first quarter of 2014. About 1,200 executives from 121 countries have indicated that the world's economic climate rose for a second quarter in a row. The major findings of the first quarter's survey are as follows:* Worldwide, executives evaluated the current economic situation, first quarter of 2014, to be slightly below satisfactory levels, led by low levels of capital expenditures. They found economic activity in their countries in the first quarter of 2014 to be better than in the first quarter of 2013. Most important, regarding the future, executives are optimistic expecting economic conditions in the third quarter of 2014 to be above those prevailing in the first quarter of 2014.* On a regional basis, North American executives assessed the current economic situation to be above satisfactory levels and better than a year ago. Looking forward, business experts from the United States and Canada expect economic conditions to get better in the next six months. In Asia, executives appraised the current economic situation to have approached the satisfactory levels and thus be better than a year ago; they were optimistic about the future, expecting economic activity in the next six months to be betterthan in the first quarter of 2014. …
Récupéré en direct depuis OpenAlex et désinversé. Les résumés ne sont pas conservés dans cette base de données : les index inversés représentent 8,6 Go des 9,3 Go de texte de la base, et le serveur dispose de 13 Go libres.
Comment cette classification a été obtenuedéplier
Prédiction distillée sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Apprise à partir de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Gemma. Le mode candidate est l'union des têtes enseignantes seuillées; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont ni des étiquettes humaines ni des étiquettes directes de modèles de pointe.
Scores Codex et Gemma par catégorie
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,002 | 0,001 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Communication savante | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Science ouverte | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule tête enseignante, pas un consensus.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».