Bibliographic record
Abstract
I. GLOBAL ASSESSMENT AND OUTLOOKDespite euphoria about the accelerated global growth in the second half of last year based on quarterly GDP statistics published with one to two quarters lag, higher frequency monthly indicators for the end of 2013 and the first two months of 2014 continue to come below expectations. Blame it on the has been the justification of politicians, media, and business leaders concerned with declining sales. There is evidence that the world economy entered a at the end of 2013. There were signs of weakness in Russia and Brazil as well as an apparent change in the underlying growth trend in China from 9% to about 6.5%. New tensions surfaced in financial markets from the emerging economies of Argentina, Turkey, and South Africa. In addition, U.S. economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2013 was revised downward from 3.2% to 2.4% resulting in an annual growth rate of 1.9% for the whole 2013, not a solid accelerating growth path when compared to 2.8% growth in 2012.Recent data tracking investment activity around the globe paints a less optimistic picture for growth in 2014. According to the findings of the World Economic Survey (WES) conducted in the first quarter of 2014, executives assessed current worldwide capital expenditures (capex)- the engine to future economic growth and jobs-to be below satisfactory levels and about the same as in the first quarter of 2013. In the Asian 15-country group, which includes China, India, and Korea, business executives evaluated current capital expenditures to be unsatisfactory and at similar levels as a year ago; they expect a slight improvement in investment in the third quarter of 2014. Given the lagging effects of investment on growth and jobs, growth in Asia is expected to decelerate in 2014. The capital expenditures outlook in Latin America, Africa, and Eastern Europe is similar to the outlook in the Asian countries. The survey points to an optimistic investment outlook in North America and the Near East countries.In sum, there are strong indications that the global economy has entered a soft patch at the end of 2013, probably in December, led by inventory corrections, neutrality of fiscal policy, a slowdown in money expansion, anemic consumer demand, and extreme weather (polar vortex). Policies in 2014 with market disruptive components, like Obama Care in the United States and austerity in Europe, and geopolitical events like the Ukraine crisis may push a fragile global economy into another recession in the summer of this year. Our forecast reflects the current soft patch and assigns a 35% probability for a global downswing in the summer.II. SHORT-TERM INDICATORS AND FORECASTSThe baseline forecast incorporates major findings of the World Economic Survey conducted by the German Ifo Institute and the Paris-based International Chamber of Commerce in the first quarter of 2014. About 1,200 executives from 121 countries have indicated that the world's economic climate rose for a second quarter in a row. The major findings of the first quarter's survey are as follows:* Worldwide, executives evaluated the current economic situation, first quarter of 2014, to be slightly below satisfactory levels, led by low levels of capital expenditures. They found economic activity in their countries in the first quarter of 2014 to be better than in the first quarter of 2013. Most important, regarding the future, executives are optimistic expecting economic conditions in the third quarter of 2014 to be above those prevailing in the first quarter of 2014.* On a regional basis, North American executives assessed the current economic situation to be above satisfactory levels and better than a year ago. Looking forward, business experts from the United States and Canada expect economic conditions to get better in the next six months. In Asia, executives appraised the current economic situation to have approached the satisfactory levels and thus be better than a year ago; they were optimistic about the future, expecting economic activity in the next six months to be betterthan in the first quarter of 2014. …
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".