Deflation Dynamics in Sweden: Perceptions, Expectations, and Adjustment During the Deflations of 1921–1923 and 1931–1933
Bibliographic record
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Big deflations are more like singular events than realizations of some stable stochastic process. Thus, the historical particulars, including the perceptions and expectations of central decision-makers should be assessed to understand deflations. This approach is adopted in this study of the two major twentieth-century deflations in Sweden, a big one in 1921–1923 and a small one in 1931–1933. We examine three groups of actors: (1) economists that took part in public debate, (2) policy makers, and (3) wage-setters, as well as interactions between these three groups. The evolution of the policy recommendations of the economists, actions of the policy makers, and behavior of the labor market participants before, during, and after the two deflations is traced. We focus on how their perceptions and expectations were influenced by the experience of the past. The major reason for considering both episodes of deflations is that the two deflations were close in time. This gives an opportunity to explore how the experience during the first deflation episode in the early 1920s influenced beliefs and behavior ten years later during the second deflation. Our general framework can be represented as follows. Prevailing perceptions and expectations held by decision-makers concerning the choice and effects of economic policies are determined by the lessons from past macroeconomic episodes. These perceptions and expectations are revised when new information is obtained from new macroeconomic episodes. The economics profession, policy makers and wage setters are involved in a neverending process of adjusting their beliefs, in short in a learning process, where the interpretation of past events, that is, the lesson of the past, serves as the major source of information for revising perceptions and expectations.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.005 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.003 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".