Testing for temporal dependence of pollen cone production in jack pine ( <i>Pinus banksiana</i> Lamb.).
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Nine-year records of the presence or absence of pollen cones (microsporangiate strobili) in 1299 jack pine (Pinus banksiana) trees growing in 38 locations (plots) across northern Ontario, Canada, were tested for temporal independence. The null hypothesis of a zero-order Markov chain was tested with three statistics at the tree level and at the location level. Tree-level test results were generally in agreement. Only ∼5% of the trees had records indicating a significant departure from the null hypothesis. Approximately one-third of the trees carried pollen cones every year or not at all. After adjustment for multiple comparisons, no trees violated the null hypothesis. Location-level tests relied on Monte-Carlo reference distributions. Depending on the test statistic, we found 2-15 locations with significant departures from the null hypothesis. Conditional (on location) temporal independence was accepted as a reasonable working model. A β binomial model described reasonably well the overall frequency distribution of the number of years (out of nine) with pollen cones. The intra-location correlation coefficient of pollen cone production was strong (0.40).
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it