PROBABILITIES OF SIGNIFICANT EARTHQUAKE SHAKING IN COMMUNITIES ACROSS CANADA
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Seismic hazard in Canada is well studied and extensively discussed within scientific and engineering communities. However, much of this information is presented in forums not readily accessible by those outside these communities, and in formats not easily understood by the “non-engineering ” community. To address this, earthquake shaking probabilities were calculated for over 600 communities across Canada at each of three intensity levels (MMI V – widely-felt; MMI VI – threshold for non-structural damage; and, MMI VII – threshold of structural damage) and over 10, 50, and 100 year periods. This paper presents a subset of these calculations for 25 communities. While the dominant tectonic features affecting seismicity in western Canada are the Cascadia Subduction Zone and the Queen Charlotte Strike-Slip Fault Zone along the active western margin of the North America Plate, the most active seismic zone in eastern Canada is the Charlevoix-Kamouraska seismic zone of paleo-rift faults along the St. Lawrence River. Shaking probabilities for all earthquakes are based on the probabilistic seismic hazard models developed by the Geological Survey of Canada and adopted in the National Building Code of Canada. Results presented in this paper are intended to enable officials and the public to better identify and understand the earthquake threat in their communities. This information is offered to encourage and facilitate informed discussion on earthquake threat in Canada, and enable reasoned, defendable seismic funding decisions.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.005 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".