Progression to detrusor muscle invasion during urothelial carcinoma surveillance is associated with poor prognosis
Bibliographic record
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: To evaluate survival in patients after radical cystectomy (RC) who presented with non-muscle-invasive urothelial carcinoma and progressed to muscle invasion during surveillance. Our secondary objective was to evaluate the association between clinical factors before RC and survival. PATIENTS AND METHODS: In all, 981 consecutive Mayo Clinic RC patients without a history of radiation or systemic chemotherapy were reviewed. Of these, 190 had RC after they progressed from non-muscle invasive disease to muscle invasion (progressed to ≥pT2). These patients were compared to 310 patients who had RC before muscle invasion (≤pT1), and 481 patients who had muscle invasion at initial presentation (presented with ≥pT2). Survival estimates were generated using the Kaplan-Meier method and compared using the log-rank test, while adjusted analyses were performed using Cox proportional hazard regression models. RESULTS: Patients who progressed to muscle invasion on surveillance had a higher risk of death than patients who initially presented with muscle invasion (overall survival hazard ratio [HR] 1.3; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.0, 1.5). The estimated 5-year cancer-specific survival was 85.4% for patients presenting with ≤pT1, 52.9% for patients who progressed to ≥pT2, and 62.4% for patients who presented with ≥pT2 (P < 0.001). The corresponding 5-year overall survival rates were 70.0%, 42.1%, and 49.5% (P < 0.001). Of the patients who initially presented with non-muscle-invasive disease, progression to muscle invasion was associated with increased risk of cancer-specific death (adjusted HR 2.38; 95% CI 1.6, 3.5). Lack of information about patients who presented without muscle invasion and never received RC is the major limitation of this study. CONCLUSIONS: Despite close surveillance, many patients who progress to muscle invasion will die from bladder cancer. Patients who progress to muscle invasion on surveillance seem to have particularly aggressive disease and may benefit from multimodal treatments.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".