Large Shocks and Small Changes in the Marriage Market for Famine Born Cohorts in
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Between 1958 and 1961, China experienced one of its worst famines in history. Birth rates plummeted during these years, but recovered imme- diately afterwards. The famine-born cohorts were relatively scarce in the marriage and labor markets. The famine also adversely aected the health of these cohorts. First, this paper provides estimates of the total eects of the famine on the marital behavior of famine aected cohorts in the rural areas of two hard hit provinces, Sichuan and Anhui. Unlike regression based methods, these causal estimates incorporates general equilibrium behavior, an important component of marital behavior. Next, the paper uses a structural model of the marriage market, the Choo Siow model, to decompose observed marital outcomes in quantity and quality eects of the famine. The structural estimates shows that the famine substantially reduced the marital attractiveness of the famine born cohort. The famine- born cohort, who were relatively scarce compared with their customary spouses, did not have signi…cant above average marriage rates. The mod- est decline in educational attainment of the famine born cohort does not explain the change in spousal quality of that cohort.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.008 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".