Incidence of second metachronous head and neck cancers: Population‐based outcomes over 25 years
Bibliographic record
Abstract
OBJECTIVES/HYPOTHESIS: The primary objective was to determine the incidence of second metachronous head and neck cancers (HNC) following an index HNC and estimate their overall survival. STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. METHODS: A total of 1,658 consecutive primary HNC patients diagnosed in 1986 to 1990 were identified through the prospectively maintained provincial BC Cancer Registry database. They were followed up for a period of 25 years. Survival analysis and second cancer estimates were performed with standard Kaplan-Meier & Cox regression analysis. RESULTS: Out of a total of 443 (27%) second cancers, 89 (5%) second HNC occurred in 1,658 HNC patients, with an actuarial metachronous HNC incidence rate at 5, 10, 15, 20, and 25 years that was 3.9%, 8.1%, 10.4%, 13.2%, and 14.5%, respectively. Second primary cancer (SPC) in lung and esophagus occurred in 155 (9%) and 32 (2%) patients, respectively. The median follow-up time for all patients and alive patients was 4.05 years (range, 0.2-25.0 years) and 23.2 years (range, 20.76-25.0 years), respectively. Of second HNC, 83 (93%) were metachronous. Oral cavity (P < 0.001) and oropharyngeal (P < 0.002) index cancers were more likely to develop a metachronous HNC. The overall survival rate for the metachronous HNC patients at 5 years is 15%. SPCs in esophagus and lung had lower overall survival compared to second HNC (P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Oral cavity and oropharyngeal cancers carry the highest risk of a subsequent metachronous HNC. Given the incidence and prognosis of second HNC, future research should address the frequency and duration of screening the head and neck region for a second cancer.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".