Bibliographic record
Abstract
OAK-B135 In the Asian Energy Security (AES) Project, Nautilus Institute works together with a network of collaborating groups from the countries of Northeast Asia to evaluate the energy security implications of different national and regional energy ''paths''. The goal of the Asia Energy Security project is to illuminate energy paths--and the energy policy choices that might help to bring them about--that result in a higher degree of energy security for the region and for the world as a whole, that is, to identify energy paths that are ''robust'' in meeting many different energy security and development objectives, while also offering flexibility in the face of uncertainty. In work to date, Nautilus has carefully assembled a network of colleagues from the countries of the region, trained them together as a group in the use of a common, flexible, and transparent energy and environmental analysis planning software tool (LEAP, the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning system), and worked with them to prepare base-year energy sector models for each country. To date, complete data sets and models for ''Business as Usual'' (BAU) energy paths have been compiled for China, Japan, the Republic of Korea, and the Democratic Peoples' Republic of Korea. A partial data set and BAU path has been compiled for the Russian Far East, and a data set is being started in Mongolia, where a team of researchers has just joined the AES project. In several countries, ''Alternative'' energy paths have been developed as well, or partially elaborated. National energy sector developments, progress on national LEAP modeling, additional LEAP training, and planning for the next phase of the AES project were the topics of a recent (early November) workshop held in Vancouver, British Columbia. With funding from the Department of Energy, Nautilus is poised to build upon the successes of the project to date with a coordinated international effort to research the energy security ramifications of regional coordination on energy issues in Northeast Asia. The paragraphs below summarize Nautilus' plans for the AES project in the coming months.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.005 | 0.003 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.265 | 0.154 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".