Compact, convex upper bound iteration for approximate POMDP planning
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) are an intuitive and general way to model sequential decision making problems under uncertainty. Unfortunately, even approximate planning in POMDPs is known to be hard, and developing heuristic planners that can deliver reasonable results in practice has proved to be a significant challenge. In this paper, we present a new approach to approximate value-iteration for POMDP planning that is based on quadratic rather than piecewise linear function approximators. Specifically, we approximate the optimal value function by a convex upper bound composed of a fixed number of quadratics, and optimize it at each stage by semidefinite programming. We demonstrate that our approach can achieve competitive approximation quality to current techniques while still maintaining a bounded size representation of the function approximator. Moreover, an upper bound on the optimal value function can be preserved if required. Overall, the technique requires computation time and space that is only linear in the number of iterations (horizon time).
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it