Does External Forcing Interfere with the AMOC’s Influence on North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature?
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Numerous studies have suggested that variations in the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) may drive predictable variations in North Atlantic sea surface temperature (NASST). However, two recent studies have presented results suggesting that coupled models disagree on both the sign and the phasing of the correlation between AMOC and NASST indices. These studies analyzed linearly detrended output from twentieth-century historical simulations in phases 3 and 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5). The present study argues that the apparent disagreement among models arises from a comingling of two processes: 1) a bottom-up effect in which unforced AMOC changes lead to NASST changes of the same sign and 2) a top-down effect in which forced NASST changes lead to AMOC changes of the opposite sign. Linear detrending is not appropriate for separating these two effects because the time scales of forced and unforced variations are not well separated. After forced variations are properly removed, the models come into much closer agreement with each other. This argument is supported by analysis of CMIP5 historical simulations, as well as preindustrial control simulations and a 29-member ensemble of the Community Earth System Model, version 1, covering the period 1920–2005. Additional analysis is presented suggesting that, even after the data are linearly detrended, a significant portion of observed NASST persistence may be externally forced.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".