Bibliographic record
Abstract
Future potential economic growth is a factor of key importance in judging the expected output gap and the inflationary pressure it entails. One important element of potential growth is the level and growth of real capital, which is materialized via investment. The tendency of investments thus provides an indication on the future potential growth. On the other hand, investments in the economy are part of aggregate demand, and thus in addition to its impact in the future, it also affects the present output gap and inflationary pressure. Finally, investments also offer insight into the expectations of economic actors regarding future prospects. The decline in the volume of investment registered in 2006, unprecedented in the last ten years, thus has particular significance from the central banks' perspective. This decline was experienced in a wide range of breakdowns: among the types of investment assets (construction, machinery purchases) as well as in corporate and household sector private investment. The drop in the household and non-tradable corporate sectors is in line with weak domestic demand resulting from the fiscal adjustment. But the fall of investment in the tradable sector is surprising in light of the favourable current state of and outlook for European economic activity. Although there was a modest correction in this trend in the first quarter of 2007, a lasting weakness in capital expansion may indicate the long-term presence of a disadvantageous investment climate in Hungary.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.019 | 0.129 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.004 | 0.010 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.005 | 0.007 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.008 | 0.003 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".