Backward Seasons and Remarkable Cold: the Weather over Long Reach, New Brunswick, 1812-1821
Bibliographic record
Abstract
ON 10 APRIL 1815 THE TAMBORA VOLCANO on the island of Sumbawa in the Indonesian archipelago erupted with violence unprecedented in historic time. The eruption had been brewing for several years. Ominous clouds gathered at the peak of the Tambora crater in 1812 and slowly travelled down its flanks. By early April 1815, rumblings and minor explosions came from inside the volcano, growing in intensity and frequency over the following few days. When volcanic activity peaked on 10 April, it killed an estimated 92,000 people on the islands of Sumbawa and Lombok, either from the direct effects of the eruption or the ensuing famine, epidemics and social disorder. A column of volcanic ash and gases extended 43 kilometres into the sky and the total erupted mass was an order of magnitude greater than the material discharged by Krakatau (Krakatoa) in 1883 and two orders of magnitude greater than the Mount St. Helens eruption in 1980. 1 Explosions and earthquakes reverberated over 1,000 kilometres away, the sea level rose suddenly by four meters and ash fell from the sky for seven days.2 The Tambora eruption was locally catastrophic, but its impact extended far beyond the Indonesian archipelago. The volcanic matter that spewed out of the crater in April 1815 was propelled into the atmosphere and, by means of normal atmospheric circulation, spread across the globe. The role of volcanic eruptions in affecting fardistant climates is well documented in the historical and scientific literatures.3 In the centuries before humans induced climate change with the concentrated production of greenhouse gases, the main factors that forced climatic changes were solar variations, volcanic eruptions and changes in the ocean-atmosphere system.4 The Tambora
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.003 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.005 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".